Raymond Frenken

The European Central Bank on Thursday opened the doors to a potential eurozone rate hike in the second half of this year as it brought forward the end of its asset purchasing programme to the summer, but at the same time it made clear that it would keep open its option to renew the programme if economic conditions worsen because of the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

The future of some 855 funds with exposure to Russia is shrouded in uncertainty as the turmoil in Russia’s financial markets continued on Monday. JP Morgan AM and Prosperity on Monday suspended their funds with assets in Russia. East Capital warned of “a very high level of disruption”. Asset managers are facing requests for information from their regulators.

For a second time in two years, investment fund managers have been ordered to directly report significant redemptions as the CSSF, the Grand Duchy’s financial supervisor, stepped up its monitoring of the impact from the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions against Russia.

The financial industry often baulked at the tens of billions of euros it pays for EU’s comprehensive regulation framework put in place post 2008 financial crisis. With markets in turmoil over Russia-Ukraine, that tone now is different.

Also as international funds hub, Luxembourg finds itself exposed to the economic fallout from Russia’s war against Ukraine. Hundreds of investment funds with assets in Russia’s financial markets are making extra efforts to keep clients abreast about the financial impact of international sanctions. Dozens of funds have already been suspended and from Wednesday, European stock exchanges have banned all trade in Russian securities.

Global commodity markets are watching the unfolding war in Ukraine with trepidation amid broad expectations the violent conflict will result in shortages for anything from aluminium to zinc. One global market, grain, is particularly vulnerable, as Russia and Ukraine together account for a very significant part of global production of wheat and barley. Wheat prices already reached a ten-year high this week.

Luxembourg fully supports the European Union’s additional sanctions against Russia over its aggressive move towards Ukraine but supports a cautious approach with the EU’s plans to eject Vladimir Putin’s country from the international payments system Swift. If that happens Russia will in essence be cut off from the world economy.

Global financial markets were in turmoil on Thursday in a clear sign that investors had not expected Russian President Vladimir Putin to make an aggressive move into Ukraine by launching a full-scale invasion.

“Even just yesterday people were dismissing this as unlikely,” well-known economist and Fed watcher Mohamed El-Erian, advisor at the Allianz & Gramercy said. “This is way beyond anything. This is a very unsatisfactory situation.” 

Luxembourg Raifs appeal to clients worldwide, January data from its business register shows. QIC, the Queensland Investment Corporation in Australia, issued an infrastructure investment Raif together with Carne Global. Ocorian supported Singapore-based SilkRoad with a new real estate fund.

Luxembourg has a promising potential to further build on its global hub status for investment funds by encouraging management companies to expand their businesses into international fund distribution, according to Xavier Parain, CEO of FundRock, Luxembourg’s largest third-party manager of investment funds.