In a year when war broke out in Ukraine, the S&P 500 lost about 25 percent of its value, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times and when the global inflation rate spiked, investors looked for wisdom in market research reports on bubbles, grey swans and investing in niche markets.
A look at the most popular reports downloaded from Investment Officer shows that investors shifted their attention away from the themes of China and crypto, which dominated favourite market reports a year earlier.
Private markets
BlackRock’s private markets outlook was the most downloaded report in 2022. The asset manager predicted that private markets would benefit from mega trends this year, especially the funds to which capital would be committed this year. Technology, healthcare, decarbonisation and changing lifestyle patterns, among others, were among the trends that BlackRock identified.
Investors’ thirst for technology and innovation, especially at the beginning of the year, is reflected by the large number of downloads of a report on global tech by Janus Henderson. The shift to Internet 3.0, electrification and the need for a new, low-carbon infrastructure are seen as leading themes driving the exponential growth of the tech sector, Janus Henderson said in the report published early this year.
Also popular, the report in which Actiam highlighted hydrogen as a promising growth market for investors. “The switch to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower means, among other things, that our energy sources will consist of electricity to a much greater extent than at present. Hydrogen gas can be converted into electricity as well as heat and is also generated using electricity,” Actiam said in January. “Institutional investors have an important role to play in the development of the hydrogen sector in the coming decades.”
Bubble extravaganza
Number four is a market view in which AllianceBernstein sets out 10 reasons to stay invested in equities, at five a report by GMO with the telling title ‘Let The Wild Rumpus Begin’. Jeremy Grantham, who has argued for years that there are very large bubbles that will burst at some point, talks in the report about “the first US bubble extravaganza”, with bubbles in housing, equities, bonds and commodities.
“We are currently in the fourth super-bubble in the US in the last 100 years,” Grantham wrote in late January. “Previous equity superbubbles had a set of distinct characteristics that are individually rare and collectively unique to these events. These common features have already occurred in this cycle. The checklist for a super-bubble is now complete and the furious eruption could begin at any time.”
Grey swans
The bottom half of the top 10 includes reports on the outlook for real estate in 2022, ESG regulation, and the Federal Reserve’s big turn in 2022.
Finally, the straggler of the top 10, namely a report on the grey swans that would plague markets this year, as outlined by State Street Global Advisors. In the report, the asset manager mentioned, among others, the scenario that crypto-regulation would create spill-over risks, that central banks would be behind the curve, that oil prices would rise to 150 dollars a barrel and that stablecoin would become mainstream.
“The market may discount their likelihood, but each scenario has the potential to materially change the markets,” State Street said of these “grey swans”. “We recommend that investors regularly evaluate whether they are adequately protected against tail risks.”
Most downloaded research reports in 2022:
- 2022 Private Markets Outlook - BlackRock/iShares
- Global tech: driven by strength of secular themes in the real world and beyond - Janus Henderson
- Waterstof: Kansrijke groeimarkt voor beleggers - Actiam
- 10 Reasons to Stay Invested in Equities - AllianceBernstein
- Let The Wild Rumpus Begin - GMO
- Visie op asset allocatie - Februari 2022 - Kempen Capital Management
- Key predictions for real estate markets in 2022 - UBS Asset Management
- The ESG regulation race is on - Schroders
- Weekly commentary: 2022’s big change: Fed hikes rates - BlackRock/iShares
- Emerging markets’ year to forget: why there is more to it than meets the eye - Schroders en Five Grey Swans That Could Disrupt Markets in 2022 - State Street Global Advisors
IO Market Research is a service for Investment Officer subscribers. The service provides access to its database of nearly 13,000 reports from more than 70 asset managers. An early-morning summary of new research reports, the Morning Call, is sent daily in a separate email to just under 8,000 recipients. Are you a subscriber but not yet receiving Morning Call? You can change this on your profile page in the newsletter settings.