Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February this year is a “turning point and a milestone in European history. Its impact is enormous. No policy area remains unaffected.” So said Steven Van Hecke, professor of international relations at the KU Leuven university on Thursday at Investment Officer’s Portfolio Day in Brussels.
Looking back, the renowned Belgian scientist and Europe specialist sees two important periods after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The first is that from 1990 to 2016, in which there was cooperation with everything and everyone.
This resulted in, among other things, Germany being allowed to unite with Russia, the Central European countries also becoming members of the European Union and NATO and globalisation experiencing its finest hour.
The second period started in 2016. That was the year of “wake up calls”: the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election and the British referendum in which Britain decided to leave the European Union.
Van Hecke said these two developments make it clear that both countries have turned away from Europe to a greater or lesser extent, forcing the EU to become “more strategically autonomous”.
Germany’s position crucial
“Crucial to the ambition of strategic autonomy is the position of Germany, because of its market power and its geographical position in the heart of Europe. What Germany does is geopolitically decisive,” said Van Hecke in his keynote at the Portfolio Day. It was the introduction to the theme of the day: “The new world order”.
Following his contribution, presentations on the financial markets were given by several international asset managers. This was followed by a lively final debate with independent investment experts Jan Longeval and Jan Vergote and Frank Vranken, head of strategy at Private Bank Edmond de Rothschild. The three shared their views on the consequences of the new world order for investment portfolios.
Professor Van Hecke believes that Europe is to this day strongly dependent on the United States and “that the European Union is now playing the grand lady, while it is not at all a case of hard politics”.
But many countries would like to belong to the European Union, such as Ukraine, but also half a dozen other candidate countries.
Van Hecke also sees an opportunity in this, namely the expansion of the sphere of influence, which he considers a correct step from a “geopolitical point of view”.
EU has ‘window of opportunity’ until 2024
Yet Van Hecke sees the European Union is in a relatively ‘fragile’ position”, but that there is now a “window of opportunity” that is open until 2024, the year when new presidential elections take place in the United States and a return of the unilateralist Donald Trump as president is possible. In that intervening period, the European Union will be dealing with a large number of issues that are fundamental to the future of Europe.
Van Hecke warned his audience that, with regard to Ukraine, he is assuming a long-term conflict with Russia, as no party can afford to lose it.
This article originally appeared on Investment Officer Belgium.