Capital Group | Four charts on why the US economy is so resilient

The United States economy is at a crossroads. Cracks are forming and growth is slowing as tariff policies weigh on hiring and curb consumer spending. On the other hand, generative artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a surge in productivity. The question is: Can AI fill the cracks in the US economy?

My view is that headwinds from trade restrictions are real, but tailwinds from AI could be even more powerful. I expect GDP growth to slow to 1% or lower in the second half of 2025, but I don’t foresee a recession. In fact, the AI megatrend could become a structural tailwind and accelerate growth in 2026 and 2027.

Here are four charts to help explain why the US economy may continue to show resilience.

SEE THE CHARTS