The latest round of tariffs launched by the US government in early April prompted a wave of criticism from world leaders, including some who say globalisation is now dead. As a global investor for over four decades, I respectfully disagree. Globalisation isn’t dead. It is, however, changing in a significant way.
Could it take a step back? Yes, I think it will. There are valid reasons for globalisation to go through a policy refresh — at least, the type of globalisation that we’ve become accustomed to since the early 1970s when trade expansion started a meteoric rise. In fact, the tectonic plates of world trade have been shifting for some time. Today's changes feel seismic, but trade as a percent of world GDP has moved roughly sideways since the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009.