In the 2008 film, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, the title character played by Brad Pitt ages in reverse, transitioning over time from an old man to a young child. Oddly enough, I think the US economy is doing something similar.
Instead of the typical four-stage business cycle — early, mid, late and recession — we have witnessed since the end of World War II, the economy appears to be transitioning from late-cycle characteristics of tight monetary policy and rising cost pressures back to mid-cycle, where corporate profits tend to peak, credit demand picks up and monetary policy is generally neutral.
The next step should have been recession but, in my view, we have clearly avoided that painful part of the business cycle and essentially moved backward in economic time to a healthier condition.