With the global economy on track for a robust rebound, the corporate earnings outlook for 2021 is very strong. Global earnings are expected to expand by 30%, and we see significant upside risks to these forecasts. Those regions/sectors that saw the steepest declines in 2020 are likely to see the sharpest profit bounceback this year. Thus, cyclical sectors like energy, industrials, and consumer discretionary likely will see explosive earnings growth after last year’s collapse. More resilient sectors, including technology, healthcare, and consumer staples, are likely to see earnings growth increase this year from 2020, but the acceleration is likely to be tame by comparison. Similarly, more cyclical-oriented regions, including emerging markets, Europe, and the UK, should lead, while the higher-quality U.S. market lags on profit growth.
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