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Economists expect above potential GDP growth this year and next, but close-to-trend growth thereafter. Consensus forecasts point to a “soft landing” in the U.S. with the rise in inflation this year merely transitory, and so anticipate that the Federal Reserve will remain patient and not prematurely taper asset purchases or raise interest rates. We are not so sanguine and believe the still highly uncertain macro outlook warrants a more agile view.
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