real estate

“Risks in real estate markets were on the rise” in 2020 according to the recently-published annual report by the CSSF financial regulator. A range of indicators point to the increased level of debt across the Luxembourg economy and with it, the risks to local lenders. This has driven the CSSF to act to reduce vulnerabilities. 

Many people will continue to work partly from home until after the pandemic is over. This reduces demand for office space. At the same time, however, the function of offices is changing. This means office space will continue to be in demand, and mainly at prime locations, says Richard Gwilliam, head of property research at M&G Real Estate.

External valuations of retail properties are unreliable. Our models indicate considerably lower prices and therefore much higher debt ratios, says real estate specialist of Egbert Nijmeijer of Kempen Capital Management.

Retail property has been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. Nevertheless, external surveyors were remarkably lenient in their half-yearly valuations. For example, for Eurocommercial Properties and Klépierre, which operate comparable medium-sized shopping centres in Europe, the downward revaluation was limited to just under 3%.

The coronacrisis has hit the real estate sector hard. Much of the damage could prove to be permanent, as underlying trends are now accelerating and consumer behaviour could change permanently, says Michael Gobitschek, manager of the Skagen M2 fund.

‘Will we still travel as much as before the virus outbreak In two years’ time, for example? And we may be working from home a lot more’, Gobitschek asks.