inflation

With stock market indicators showing rapid growth, what is happening? Is the bear market ending or is this just a regular bear market rally that will soon end? Some way we might be facing a recovery, others say that it’s just hopeless optimism.

In an interview with Investment Officer, Nobel Economics Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, speaks about making decisions. His theory, which also holds value for the financial sector, has demonstrated that our decisions are often flawed, biassed and inaccurate. “If people made better decisions, the world would be a better place.”

Nowadays, when the term stagflation is mentioned, everyone thinks back to the 1970s. Anyone who suggests a stagflation scenario as a real scenario for the future is immediately reminded of the many differences between then and now. The vast majority of people in the financial world started working after the 1970s. If they were born then, it is not a period they actively remember.

The European Central Bank now is convinced that it will raise its benchmark eurozone interest rate at its 21 July monetary policy meeting and said it expects that its interest rates will no longer be negative by September. Its latest statement also indicates that the ECB is hedging its bets for upcoming medium-term policy moves in order to to add to its flexibility to act. 

A Brussels-based group standing up for European users of financial services has warned that European savers and investors in long-term savings and pension products face a particularly sharp erosion of purchasing power as a result of rising prices.

Speaking about “financial repression”, Betterfinance, one of two EU-level consumer finance NGOs that regularly interact with the European Commission, said European savers are set to lose “hundreds of billions of euro” in purchasing power in 2022 alone.

The Japanese yen is rapidly losing its value against the dollar, increasing pressure  on the Japanese economy as well as the yen’s status as a safe haven. We investigated the Japanese enigma.

For the first time in twenty years, a dollar is worth 130 yen. Some currency specialists believe that in the short term 135 yen will have to be paid for a dollar. Mazen Issa, currency strategist at TD Securities, even sees an upward trend to 150.

For the moment, inflation is largely caused by a sharp increase in energy prices. Two years ago, the oil price was negative for a while, but since then it has been rising rapidly. Sustainability policy measures have contributed to this, because investment in new oil extraction has been under pressure in recent years not only because of the low oil price.

The International Monetary Fund has warned of a more permanent fragmentation of the world economy into geopolitical blocks with distinct technology standards, cross-border payment systems, and reserve currencies. The fund has lowered its growth outlook for the global economy and warned that inflation in many countries is threatening to undermine future growth. “Inflation has become a clear and present danger in many countries,” the IMF said.

As inflation persists across Europe, with double-digit numbers for some eurozone countries, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s road map for upcoming interest rates hikes drew a mixed response in the markets.

The European Central Bank on Thursday, in no hurry to raise interest rates while inflation pressures continue to build, took another small step on its journey  towards higher eurozone benchmark rate as Lagarde repeatedly underlined the need for flexibility in the bank’s monetary policy.

Not surprisingly, Berkshire Hathaway has risen 16 percent this year and has outperformed the S&P 500 by 23 percent over the past 12 months. Pricing power is an important criteria for Mr Buffett and Mr Munger in their selection process. Their company in essence is one large investment portfolio, and one that is resilient to increasing inflation.