Russia

Corinne Lamesch, chair of the board at the Association of the Luxembourg Fund Industry (Alfi), speaks to InvestmentOfficer.lu for a podcast about current challenges facing the asset management industry, specifically in dealing with investment funds exposed to Russian assets and the implementation of sanctions against Russia, and in sustainable finance and ESG.

Even as limited trading resumed on Moscow’s exchange on Thursday, prospects for emerging market funds exposed to Russia remained cloudy as determining accurate asset values continued to be nearly impossible. Fund managers now await guidance from financial supervisors before taking next steps on suspended funds.

The biggest risk for investors at the moment is high inflation. While the market places too much emphasis on short-term inflation, it also tends to underestimate long-term inflation.

The news that Powell might raise interest rates by 50 basis points next time was greeted with cheers, as it would bring inflation under control more quickly. However, the Fed will be able to live with inflation hovering between 3 and 4 per cent for a long time, although Powell will never admit that. In the eurozone, it is certainly not about fighting higher inflation.

The head of Luxembourg’s top financial regulator on Tuesday called on the country’s asset management industry to step up its efforts and make sure that Russian oligarchs don’t evade sanctions by hiding their money in European investment funds.

It almost sounds like a call to run for the hills. Get rid of your risky assets, go defensive, and play volatility as an asset class. Sell European equities and buy Swiss. Now that the Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of abating, Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Swiss-based Pictet Wealth Management, fears that excessive global debt has made the world economy vulnerable to a new systemic crisis. 

Mutual funds and ETFs investing in Russian stocks and bonds posted unprecedented losses last week after Russian president Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine. Managers of emerging market funds with Russia exposure are now also closely watching the effects of potential withdrawals and may face liquidity challenges now that the EU and US have collectively decided to remove Russia from the international payments network Swift.

The future of some 855 funds with exposure to Russia is shrouded in uncertainty as the turmoil in Russia’s financial markets continued on Monday. JP Morgan AM and Prosperity on Monday suspended their funds with assets in Russia. East Capital warned of “a very high level of disruption”. Asset managers are facing requests for information from their regulators.

Luxembourg has joined the international move to impose sanctions against Russia for its ruthless invasion of Ukraine. It has followed steps taken by other European and global countries and organisations, including condemning Russia’s aggression, even sending some weaponry and equipment to Ukraine’s beleaguered defenders. But there’s one area where Luxembourg appears to be out of step: the high profile application of the sanctions to Russian oligarchic assets held in this country.

For a second time in two years, investment fund managers have been ordered to directly report significant redemptions as the CSSF, the Grand Duchy’s financial supervisor, stepped up its monitoring of the impact from the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions against Russia.

Financial markets started another volatile week on Monday, extending their declines after leading stock market indices fell sharply on Friday amid worries about the ripple-effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Oil prices surged further on Monday, with North Sea Brent crude trading near a record high 139 dollars per barrel amid talk of a ban on Russian oil imports.