Chart of the week: How a forgotten recession indicator is becoming even more important
Some macroeconomic indicators carry more weight than others. But does this mean investors always pay attention to the right ones? I doubt it. That’s why, in this column, I focus on a once-reliable recession predictor whose effectiveness is fading, and another indicator that actually determines recessions—but is largely overlooked.
Morningstar: European automotive industry faces difficult times
The European automotive sector is going through a challenging period. Troubling developments have put pressure on the stock prices of European car manufacturers, leading to a decline in their significance within the global equity market. This comes at a time when the weighting of the global automotive industry in the worldwide stock index is at its highest level in over two decades.
Certificate inflation
The number of candidates taking CFA exams has declined again, according to the latest figures. At its peak in 2019, over 270,000 individuals registered, but the most recent figure stalled at 163,000. As is often the case, there are likely multiple explanations for this trend.
Fund houses see strong opportunities in US stocks
Most fund houses believe the US stock market offers the best opportunities for high returns next year, despite already high valuations. In contrast, the outlook for Europe is bleak.
Transfers: Lombard Odier, Waystone, AllianzGI, Stibbe, AKD
This week’s overview of appointments includes news from Lombard Odier, Waystone, Allianz Global Investors, Stepstone, Stibbe, AKD Luxembourg and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Eltif 2.0, outsourcing, and tax in focus
This autumn, regulators tightened rules in three parts of the European fund sector: the Eltif 2.0 rules, outsourcing of portfolio management by Luxembourg funds, and the evolving rules for tax transparency in the Netherlands.
Investors aim for greater sustainability in private markets
Institutional investors worldwide are accelerating their shift towards sustainable private markets, according to three studies conducted by L&G, Schroders, and Montana Capital Partners. They are increasing allocations to ESG-focused sectors such as renewable energy, healthcare, and infrastructure.
CSSF embraces Luxembourg-based AI cloud in digital push
Luxembourg financial regulator the CSSF has started identifying pilot projects to explore artificial intelligence applications based on a new Luxembourg-based cloud computing platform incorporating Google services. The move is seen in part as a way to cope with a long-standing difficulty in recruiting sufficient qualified staff.
Chart of the week: fade the trade
Financial journalists and market experts have a new gimmick: the “Trump trade”. With another four years of the Trump show ahead, we might derive all sorts of investment ideas from the yet-to-be-implemented policies. But I have my doubts about most of these trades—not only whether they will yield good returns, but also whether they even exist in the first place.
Morningstar: playing chess with thematic funds rarely leads to profit
Thematic funds have grown significantly in size, number, and prominence globally over the past five years. Despite recent underperformance, these funds seem to maintain a lasting role in investors’ portfolios. Higher costs, greater volatility, and the slim odds of success do not deter investors from chasing popular investment trends.