Investment Officer Luxembourg

Franklin Templeton, one of the world’s ten largest asset managers, this week outlined its views on investing at a time that inflation threatens to undermine economic growth. Investors who haven’t already done so need to adapt their portfolios to take account of the new inflation-fighting interest rate environment, at least in the short term. Underpinning its investment outlook is the expectation of more balanced monetary policy risks later this year.

With investors’ appetite for risk diminishing, equity markets are having a tough time this year. Despite a war raging on Europe’s external borders, European shares are holding up relatively well. However, this mainly applies to so-called large-caps, because shares of smaller companies are deeper in the red.

Investors have become increasingly risk-averse this year and have sold off shares worldwide. Rising inflation, falling economic growth, the prospect of interest rate increases and geopolitical tensions do not bode well for risky investments.

In the autumn of 1997, both in Europe and the United States, the ten-year interest rate fell towards 5 per cent. This was caused by the Asia crisis, which caused prices to fall worldwide. Falling interest rates and falling share prices were an unusual combination at the time.

Net assets of worldwide investment funds decreased by 2.5 percent in the first quarter as the decline in the United States and Europe was only partly offset by net inflows in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the latest International Statistical Release published by the European Fund and Asset Management Association, known as Efama. Bond and money market saw strong net outflows during the first three months, although China bucked the with rising inflows for money market funds.

The US central bank on Wednesday evening announced t that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to cushion rising inflation. Earlier this week, the Fed already indicated to markets that it would do so. Economists and analysts last week were still expecting a 50 bp increase. The bigger-than-expected hike increases the chances of a recession in the United States.

Following an emergency meeting of its governing council, the European Central Bank on Wednesday said it will bring forward its plans to create a new instrument that will prevent fragmentation between the 19 economies in the eurozone.

It’s not difficult to compare today’s era to the 1970s. An energy crisis, a hot war, a cold war, persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, rising house prices. Even Abba, with its flared trousers, is performing again, albeit as a hologram. For investors, a rerun of the 1970s would require a profound rethink.