Investment Officer Luxembourg

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin wants to vote against President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better programme. Since the Democrats only have a narrow majority in the Senate, a majority that they are going to lose at the end of this year, the generosity of the American government will be over.

According to the Republican senators and Manchin, it is no longer about saving the economy, but about fighting rising inflation.

Traditionally, the first outlooks for the coming year trickle in from September onwards. With sometimes a quarter of a year still to go, strategists start relating their vision of the economic and financial themes that await investors in the next calendar year. The big question is which investors have actually hit the mark in their outlook for 2021. The reckoning. 

“Although we are number twelve in the world in order of assets under management, we are a relatively unknown player. Come to think of it, we’re probably the biggest asset manager people have never heard of,” said Simon England-Brammer (pictured), senior managing director EMEA and APAC of Nuveen. 

As in the sovereign and corporate bond markets, private debt valuations have risen sharply. “However, by focusing on the lower end of the middle market, we have been able to maintain spreads,” said  David Bouchoucha, CIO of Private Debt and Real Assets at BNP Paribas Asset Management, in conversation with Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s sister publication.

In its outlook for 2022, JP Morgan Asset Management makes no bones about the fact that equities remain attractive, even if inflation sticks around a bit longer than expected. In times of inflation and negative real interest rates, equities have almost never given a negative return in the past, according to JP Morgan’s outlook with chief strategist Vincent Juvyns (photo).

It was the week of the central banks. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 15 basis points, the US Fed hinted at three rate hikes and a reduction in the buy-back programme. What exactly the ECB is aiming for is not entirely clear to market analysts. One thing is clear: a rate hike is the ultimum remedium for the central bank of President Christine Lagarde. 

The yield curves on the global bond markets flattened dramatically during the second half of October. When flattening is followed by inversion of the yield curves, a recession is inevitable. This ominous development is causing concern in the market, but are the concerns justified?

The business outlook for next year is characterised by concerns about inflation. Is it a temporary phenomenon linked to problems in the supply chain as consumer demand has picked up again this year? Or is it permanent? Central bankers are considering their usual anti-inflation tool, interest rate hikes and the removal of public measures to stimulate the economy. According to US economist Robert Reich, the real problem is more a matter of regulatory failure in the area of competition law.

European equities are very attractive right now with a risk premium of around 7 per cent. To navigate in this environment, a barbell strategy between long and short duration equities is appropriate. In this way, one can intelligently combine growth and value.