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Lazard AM: Nordic bonds still offer positive return potential

Positive returns on investment-grade bonds have been hard to come by in the West. The Nordic market is one of the few exceptions, says Michael Weidner, head of European fixed income for global asset manager Lazard Asset Management. He especially likes Danish mortgage bonds.

‘Nordic bonds are a market segment with high credit quality, high liquidity and some extra yield without additional risk,’ he says. For Weidner, this market is one of the ultimate safe havens for risk-sensitive bond investors.

Bond return prospects bleaker than ever

Bonds are among the best performing asset classes of the past 40 years. But it’s not unlikely the next 40 years will show a radically different picture. 2021 and 2022 could even yield negative returns as above-average economic growth and rising inflation could push bond yields up from their record-low levels.

The table below shows that bonds have done great over the past four decades. However, returns have fallen steadily from 222.7% in the period 1980-1989, to 109.9% in 1990-1999, to 84.7% in 2000-2009 and to 44.5% in the ten years from 2010-2019.