Investment Officer Luxembourg

This week, the following chart from the Financial Times caught my attention. It shows the net issuance of shares worldwide since 1999. Although the year is still relatively young, 2024 so far shows the largest negative issuance over this period.

As the chart also indicates, in recent years, it has become more common for more shares to “disappear” (often bought back in buyback programs) than are issued. To be precise, in four of the last nine years.

While it must frequently adjust its predictions, the market yet anticipates two reductions in the Federal Reserve’s rates within the year. Should these occur, the implications for the S&P 500 are a matter of considerable speculation.

“At some point a kind of repetition creeps in, fatigue too, like over that eternal ECB watch, whether a comma has shifted somewhere. Take US interest rates. Do you remember whether or not it was raised in March 2018?”

Emerging markets continued last year’s trend in Q1 2024. And that is not good news for emerging market investors, as it meant another significant underperformance versus developed countries. Although the return of the MSCI EM index was 4.71 per cent in euros, making it positive in absolute terms, it is a considerably worse result than the 11.37 per cent achieved by the MSCI World index.

Paris-based Oddo BHF Asset Management has announced the launch its first European Long-Term Investment Fund. The fund is called the Oddo BHF Commit for Tomorrow Eltif and will be domiciled in Luxembourg, targeting clients keen to commit to long-term financing companies that provide energy storage and water treatment solutions.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is charting a course of strategic patience, signalling a readiness for a gradual policy shift that could commence as early as June. Analysts uniformly anticipate that while the near term may see steady policy rates, a carefully orchestrated move towards easing is on the cards.

As the ECB prepares for its forthcoming rate decision on Thursday, leading financial analysts have shared their insights, painting a picture of what asset owners can expect in the coming months.

The first quarter of 2024 has lapsed and there are only less than three quarters to go for the implementation of the Digital Operational Resilience Act (Dora). Dora will apply to most EU financial entities, including (Ucits) management companies alternative investment fund managers (AIFMs), as well as ICT third-party service providers (including providers of cloud computing services, software, data analytics services and data centres).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week issued a dire warning concerning the rapidly expanding private credit sector. With Luxembourg standing as a pivotal hub for private credit in both Europe and globally, the IMF’s cautionary stance merits serious attention from the Grand Duchy’s financial community.

Money’s gotta move—it’s the backbone of our economy, and the speed at which it zips around, known as the turnover or circulation rate, tells us a lot. It’s all about how often a dollar is spent in a certain timeframe. When times are good, money flows like a river—transactions aplenty. But in rougher waters, that river slows to a trickle as folks hold tight to their wallets. Lately, after a sluggish spell, we’re seeing that flow pick up speed again.