Investment Officer Luxembourg

The prospect of foreign investors reducing their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns about the dominance of U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven is fueling discussions about the very concept of a safe haven. Significant shifts in correlations between various asset classes, particularly between U.S. equities and the dollar, are at the heart of this debate.

Investors are pulling out of U.S. equity ETFs en masse, while European trackers are experiencing a record inflow.

During the first quarter of 2025, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cut rates as inflation fell, and markets reacted positively to an announced 1 trillion euro package for defense and infrastructure spending in Germany. Shorter-duration bonds outperformed longer-duration bonds—paving the way for high-yield fare, which typically has a shorter duration than investment-grade fare.

Billions are evaporating from the US markets. The world’s largest asset managers are divided in their commentary, but it’s clear they are concerned. Larry Fink said he is “terrified” in the short term.

It was March 2015 when Otmar Issing, an early board member of the ECB and the bank’s former chief economist, poured me a cup of coffee. Like two war veterans, we sat on the 60th floor of the Messeturm in Frankfurt, gazing out at the smoke plumes marring the city’s skyline. Issing had seen something like it before—just as I had.

European banks are scaling back commercial real estate lending on the back of tighter capital requirements under the ‘Basel III’ rules. The retreat has opened the door for private credit funds to move deeper into property finance.

Art insurance is gaining traction in Belgium as discretionary collectors increasingly prioritise professional protection, clear provenance and fiscal transparency.

Major geopolitical events can depress global stock prices by around one percent per month. In emerging markets, the impact can be as much as 2.5 percent. That’s according to the International Monetary Fund, which warns that geopolitics has started to exert greater influence on stock markets over the past few years.