Despite ominous forecasts, the German stock market is also participating unhindered in the rally that most markets saw in October. The DAX index rose 8.4 per cent last month. This is striking, as virtually all indicators point to a very bleak outlook for the eurozone’s largest economy. Is the German economic model faltering?
The future of our eastern neighbours’ successful economic business model has definitely entered its final phase with the invasion of Ukraine, according to ING’s economic agency.
For years, the country was able to import cheap Russian energy to produce high-quality goods for global export. Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macro, said those days are over.
“The country is now forced to accelerate its green transition, restructure supply chains and prepare for a less globalised world,” he said in a note to investors.
“And all this comes on top of well-known long-standing problems, such as a lack of digitalisation, tired infrastructure and an ageing society, to name a few. Regardless of the depth of the upcoming winter recession, German growth will be moderate for a while yet,” Brzeski said.
So far, the Frankfurt stock exchange has shrugged its shoulders. With no significant new positive data, the DAX rose 8.4 per cent from last month. Meanwhile, the German economy has dropped out of the top four largest economies in the world.
Germany no longer the fourth largest economy
Quarterly GDP growth slowed to 0.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, significantly lower than the eurozone’s 0.8 per cent GDP growth in the same period. The country has ceded its position as the world’s fourth-largest economy to California, Bloomberg data showed this week.
The problem is dependence on Russian energy. The problems are such that Deutsche Bank had to downgrade the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2023, published in June, from -1 to -3.5 per cent.
According to credit rating agency Fitch, the energy issue is not only a major negative supply and income shock to the German economy, it also has a significant negative impact on business and household confidence.
“The problem is compounded by the German public’s strong aversion to higher inflation,” Fitch said in its Rating Action Commentary for Germany. The country’s AAA status is nevertheless maintained.
Germans not at ease
A survey of German industrial companies by the Federation of German Industries (FDI) shows that for 34 per cent of respondents, the rise in energy costs threatens their survival. Some 58 per cent of respondents speak of “a major challenge”. Almost a tenth of companies in Germany have already reduced or even suspended production, FDI reported.
IFO’s Germany Business Expectations Index, which shows entrepreneurs’ sentiment about the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months, has been at a multi-year low of 75 points since September. Only in March 2020 was the index briefly lower.
‘Bankruptcy tsunami’ not yet
Concerns about energy supply and high inflation, meanwhile, have also reached lenders. As many as a quarter of credit-seeking German companies are encountering reluctance, according to an Ifo Institute survey published on Monday. German companies are increasingly struggling to stay afloat.
The number of bankruptcies of German companies was 34 per cent higher in September than the year before, according to the current analysis by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle, known as IWH. A further rise in bankruptcies is expected for the autumn.
Although the increase was larger than expected, “we are not yet in a bankruptcy tsunami,” IWH’s chief researcher Steffen Müller told news channel Deutsche Welle.
This article originally appeared in Dutch on InvestmentOfficer.nl.