Investing

Spreads on European government bonds are at their lowest level since 2008. The periphery is benefiting from structural growth and European subsidies, while core countries such as France and Germany are weakening. Investors are wondering how much of that convergence remains once the carry trade turns.

Belgium was long known as a late adopter of ETFs. But over the past three years, adoption has clearly accelerated, at 13 percent per year. This has brought the market closer to the European average.

ASML shares took a hit last week, after the company had risen in January to become Europe’s largest listed company. That has once again fuelled the question of whether the Dutch chip-equipment maker has become too big, too loved and too expensive. But how convincing are those doubts, really?

In the new multipolar world order, globalization is a thing of the past. Yet Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, still advises investors to allocate capital across continents. She recently flew in from Singapore for a European roadshow with investors.

Chinese equities have outperformed Wall Street for two consecutive years, yet the label ‘uninvestable’ continues to stick, analysts say. China bulls have not abandoned the market, but they remain divided over whether state-owned enterprises should be kept or avoided.

An uptick of volatility in the dollar is forcing European investors to confront an awkward choice. With hedging already expensive, some are paying up to protect against further weakness. Others are opting to take the risk, arguing the bulk of the adjustment may already be behind them.

Europe’s failure to complete its capital markets integration carries a measurable economic cost of around 150 billion euro per year in lost investment, according to a new report from the Citi Institute. Over a ten-year period, the drag on economic growth could amount to roughly 1.5 percent of GDP.

Strong demand for gold from central banks and the relatively small position held by private investors in the precious metal will push the gold price higher in 2026, Carmignac expects. Even so, the asset manager has slightly reduced its allocation to gold.

Academic researchers in Europe and the United States are finding that prices on Polymarket, a fast-growing online prediction market, can track real-world outcomes with surprising accuracy. The findings suggest such platforms could become a useful tool for professional investors.

As a growing part of the financial community questions whether artificial intelligence has created a bubble, Fabiana Fedeli takes a different view. The CIO for Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability at M&G Investments argues that AI is not the source of a fundamental market imbalance, but rather acts as an accelerator of price adjustments in an environment that has become extremely fast-moving.