Investing

When it comes to passing on assets, Luxembourg’s wealthy are focused on legacy rather than tax optimization, according to Ellen Brullard, chair of STEP Benelux and counsel at Arendt & Medernach. Anticipation is key, though it is more complex than it sounds.

Digital, operational and cyber resilience are key priorities for the year to come, says CSSF director-general Claude Marx, who points out that Europe is already being targeted by hybrid warfare attacks and expects to see more in the future.

Markets still assume that the war in the Middle East will not escalate into a prolonged conflict, and that is good news for investments in emerging markets. After the initial attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, several markets in Asia and South America took significant hits, but over the past two weeks they have shown resilience.

Investors in evergreen funds apparently did not fully grasp what they were getting into when they entrusted their capital to these “semi-liquid” vehicles investing in private markets. After Blue Owl, two large private credit funds managed by Blackstone and Blackrock were hit last week with a surge in redemption requests.

Oil prices can swing by tens of dollars within hours, as happened this week amid the war surrounding Iran. Yet the headline oil price is only one signal from the commodity markets. A further ten indicators reveal where pressure in the energy system is truly building.

In a fund market that is becoming increasingly fragmented between European requirements, rising regulatory pressure, and the growth of private markets, large offshore firms can no longer ignore Luxembourg. For Mourant, historically established in Jersey, Guernsey, and the Cayman Islands, opening an office in the Grand Duchy two years ago was not merely a geographic expansion. It was a strategic repositioning.

A large share of the bond markets currently offers yields that look attractive, above the magical threshold of 4 percent. But the war in the Middle East is fueling fears that inflation could move in that direction as well, which would erode much of the real return.

For more than a century, it has been “very unwise” for investors to position themselves against the United States, according to professor Paul Marsh of London Business School. The US is likely to remain dominant in terms of market size in the future, but its outperformance may well be coming to an end, he argues.
Today, US equities account for nearly two thirds of global market capitalization, and the world’s largest bond market sits in the same jurisdiction.

With the restoration of the negative correlation between equities and bonds, the structure of strategic asset allocation is once again under debate among asset owners and asset managers. Was the shift away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards a permanent allocation to private markets a lasting course correction — or merely a temporary response to an extraordinary period? Investment Officer spoke to four leading investment professionals.

Oil and gas prices rose sharply on Monday as investors assessed the implications of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, with markets focused on whether the conflict risks widening.