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Laffers lijntje

De signalen dat burgers en bedrijven bereid zijn om hun land te verlaten als de belastingdruk maar hoog genoeg wordt, nemen zienderogen toe. Daarmee duwt een reeds 50 jaar oude economische theorie, die lange tijd als nietszeggend hersenspinseltje werd weggezet, zich pontificaal in de schijnwerpers.

European banks aren’t overexposed to the Middle East, but their borrowers might be

European banks have little direct exposure to the Middle East, says European credit rating agency Scope. However, as tensions in the region threaten to push up energy prices and slow economic growth, the risks for lenders may emerge elsewhere: in the balance sheets of the companies they finance.

Emerging markets holding up amid strong dollar - for now

Markets still assume that the war in the Middle East will not escalate into a prolonged conflict, and that is good news for investments in emerging markets. After the initial attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, several markets in Asia and South America took significant hits, but over the past two weeks they have shown resilience.

Chart of the week: the hidden cost of Trump’s war

The price of a barrel of crude oil surged past the $100 mark as the situation in the Middle East escalated further. A small price to pay, according to the president of the United States. Yet I suspect Trump is taking too narrow a view of the true cost of this new military intervention – if he is even considering those costs at all.