Investment Officer Netherlands

The unrest in the Middle East has affected Emerging Market Debt (EMD) through rising rates and higher risk premiums. There is no indication, for now, of a structural deterioration in credit risk.

The fact that some bond issuances are now oversubscribed by as much as ten times illustrates how sharply market sentiment has shifted. After more than a decade of interest rates close to zero, bonds in the eurozone are once again offering returns, around 3 to 4 percent for investment grade.

The conflict between the US and Iran is hitting the core of the Federal Reserve’s rate strategy. The one factor that was keeping rate cuts alive, falling housing costs, is now under pressure. Fed governor Stephen Miran’s bet that housing costs would keep falling fast enough to justify lower Fed rates is now being tested in the worst possible way.

The war against Iran has now lasted a month, and the consequences are becoming visible at a rapid pace. The conflict began as an American-Israeli operation targeting Iran’s nuclear program and the regime in Tehran. But while the United States and Israel are dropping bombs, Europe is absorbing the heaviest economic blows. The result of decades of failed European energy policy, strategic dependency, and a lack of geopolitical power.

A sweeping new EU regulation for ESG rating providers is set to reshape a market that Morningstar Sustainalytics has helped build, consolidating a fragmented industry and raising the compliance bar significantly.

Now that the US SEC has placed most digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, outside its oversight, chair Paul Atkins said the “brake on innovation” that the market watchdog had become under Gary Gensler is disappearing.

If there is one thing that characterizes the investment world, it is that it is full of clichés, parrots, and an enormous reluctance to change. It is sometimes laughable how market experts produce the same one-liners for twenty years or bury you under their “market wisdom.”

Blackrock is an established behemoth with total assets that easily overwhelm its closest rivals, while UBS Asset Management is rebuilding following the acquisition of Credit Suisse Asset Management.

Faithful readers of this column know that I am deeply concerned about the politicization of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lessons from monetary history and piles of academic research support that concern: we simply know that a central bank that listens to what politicians want is bad news for inflation in the medium term.

An Irish long-term investment fund has suspended redemptions after investor withdrawals exceeded its limits, marking the first gating event in the European market and exposing the structural tension at the heart of the product.