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The growing gap between earnings calls and stock prices in private credit

The already downward-trending stock prices of major US private credit firms took another hit this month amid the markdown of the software sector and concerns about AI. While executives are trying to contain those concerns, analysts say market participants may already be pricing in risks that could affect clients later.

Japan: from lost decades to profitable reflation

The election result in Japan was historic. For the first time since World War II, one party secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. Prime Minister Takaichi can now implement her plans without the compromises that have so often paralyzed Japanese politics. The stock markets responded positively: prices rose and records were broken. This is the first effect of the coming reflation on Japan’s financial markets.

‘High-quality corporate bonds are expensive, but still attractive’

Rising budget deficits have caused government bonds to lose much of their appeal as a safe haven for investors. High-quality corporate bonds have subsequently moved up the ranks. Has the rally run its course? Samuel Gruen, fixed income specialist at Rothschild & Co Asset Management, examined the European market from a historical perspective.

Patchwork quilt of European taxes on wealth expands

With the Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamerlid) passing the Actual Return Box 3 Act last week, the Netherlands will introduce “paper gains” as a basis for taxation starting in 2028. That is entirely unique in Europe. The patchwork of solutions Europe has devised for this tax will therefore gain a new addition.

Convergence in European government bonds seen near its limits

Spreads on European government bonds are at their lowest level since 2008. The periphery is benefiting from structural growth and European subsidies, while core countries such as France and Germany are weakening. Investors are wondering how much of that convergence remains once the carry trade turns.