The tariffs announced by President Trump are accelerating an already ongoing reshoring trend. Companies are being forced to revise their strategies—and so are investors. Intermediaries stand to benefit, as do warehouse providers. According to Christoph Berger of Allianz Global Investors, investors would do well to focus on countries gaining ground in the reorganization of supply chains, but without letting import tariffs be their sole guide.
The global logistics market continues to grow. Early estimates have already penciled in a size of 7.9 trillion by 2032, implying annual growth of over 4 percent. However, the announcement of higher import duties earlier this year has dampened that upward trend. The first casualties of tariff volatility? Supply chains.
Benny Mantin, professor of supply chain management and logistics at the University of Luxembourg, told Investment Officer that this is a short-term behavioral reaction. “Players seem to be thinking: Let’s bring in as many goods as we can before the door closes. This rush has caused disruptions, such as the phenomenon of ghost containers, where empty containers are shipped just to retain shipping slots.”
Christoph Berger, CIO of Equity Europe, witnessed a massive buildup of inventory in the United States earlier this year to preempt the tariffs. “Large volumes of air freight were sent from China to the U.S. to secure sufficient stock,” he explained. Faced with prohibitive tariffs—145 percent on certain Chinese exports to the U.S., which Berger describes as “more or less equivalent to an embargo”—companies were forced to reinvent themselves.
Since the 90-day ceasefire agreement in May, caution has prevailed, as changes are happening rapidly. Berger believes relocating full production to the U.S. solely because of tariffs is unwise. Companies initially built up inventory and are now considering structural adjustments. Carl Auffret, European equities portfolio manager at DNCA in Luxembourg, confirms that reshoring is not new but is now accelerating. The U.S. and China are striving for greater autonomy, while Europe is “lagging slightly behind.”
This uncertainty comes at a cost. Berger warns: if business leaders hesitate to invest, the lack of visibility will hold back capital expenditure. For investors, the situation requires careful analysis. Auffret identifies segments that are thriving: freight forwarders like DSV or Kuehne+Nagel are flourishing as intermediaries due to the complexity of the sector. He explains that any disruption in the Suez Canal results in lower volumes—but prices rise because companies must rapidly find complex alternatives. Their asset-light model (they own few assets themselves) makes them less vulnerable to direct volume declines.
Another promising segment, according to Auffret, is contract logistics. This involves warehouse management, where companies like ID Logistics excel. “Their role is to run warehouses efficiently and handle demand peaks,” he explained. This activity, which is more focused on the domestic market, benefits from the trend toward outsourcing. Global e-commerce giants are increasingly handing off this complex management, particularly for bulky products. “These contracts drive very strong growth,” says the Luxembourg-based investor, noting ID Logistics’ high organic growth.
In the longer term, supply chain resilience becomes a crucial issue. Dr. Mantin recalls the previous popularity of lean supply chains, which rely on suppliers and limit inventory. While the principle of waste reduction remains valid, it now demands a “deep understanding of the supply chain” and “stress testing.” One example is Toyota. Long before the shortage, the automaker had increased its semiconductor stock—a counterintuitive but visionary decision, according to the professor.
Christoph Berger agrees and expects that supply chains will become more geographically dispersed in the future. He sees India as an “obvious” candidate but emphasizes that he would not base his investment decision in the country solely on tariffs. The volatility is simply too high. However, Berger estimates that these disruptions will have only a “temporary” impact on the global production footprint. For companies, now is the time to prioritize flexibility, establish buffer zones, and diversify cautiously. For investors, as Carl Auffret puts it: “When the market is unstable and complexity is high, that’s not bad news for freight forwarders and certain warehouse operators.” The key? Selectivity—the ability to identify those players who can turn complexity into opportunity.