Is the US Spot Bitcoin ETF Hype Overblown? The SEC’s rejection of spot bitcoin ETFs faces legal challenges, raising questions about their potential impact.
Last month, Grayscale Investments triumphed in a crucial legal fight for launching trackers with direct Bitcoin exposure. The world’s largest bitcoin fund manager, Grayscale, and a candidate issuer for a US spot bitcoin ETF, sued the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). They claimed the SEC’s rejection of their spot bitcoin ETF application was unlawful.
A federal court in Washington DC concurred. The court stated that the SEC failed to justify why spot bitcoin ETFs face different risks compared to bitcoin futures ETFs, which have been approved by the SEC.
Market optimism
The SEC could reject Grayscale based on new arguments, but the market expects that its application, along with those from other asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and ARK Invest, will be approved.
Market players predict that approval could attract substantial capital, ranging from three billion dollars on the first day to 55 billion dollars over five years, as per Reuters.
After discussions with industry experts, Tim Bevan, CEO of ETC Group, believes US spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved in January. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90 percent chance of approval in January, with the 10th being the crucial date for the SEC’s decision on an application by ARK Invest.
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, another contender for a spot bitcoin ETF, notes a significant shift in the SEC’s stance. Approval seems imminent, though some application details are still being debated.
Market movements
Despite bitcoin’s recent price surge, the market hasn’t fully priced in SEC acceptance, says Van Eck. He anticipates a brief “sell the news” moment but expects it to have only a minor effect on the current bull market.
Recent inflows of 312 million dollars into bitcoin products, totaling over 1.5 billion dollars this year, show increasing interest.
However, JPMorgan doubts significant new capital inflows. They argue that funds may shift from existing bitcoin products to new ETFs.
Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, a managing director specializing in digital assets at JPMorgan, cautions about a potential 2.7 billion dollar outflow from GBTC upon its conversion to a spot bitcoin ETF. He predicts substantial downward pressure on bitcoin prices due to these outflows.
“Significantly more money than 2.7 billion dollars could leave GBTC if the fee isn’t substantially reduced post-ETF conversion,” writes Panigirtzoglou on LinkedIn.
Cost and performance
Specialized ETFs with narrow focuses have historically underperformed compared to broader ETFs. This underperformance, according to the study ‘Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,’ stems from the overvaluation of underlying stocks at launch rather than high fees.
Thematic ETFs, often chosen by less experienced investors, underperform due to overvalued stock holdings, the study suggests.
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