As yields increase, several fund houses have recently bought European government bonds, following the ‘huge sell-off’ in this market. In the meantime, commodities should ease the pain of high inflation.
Both BlackRock and Van Lanschot Kempen announced Thursday that they have bought European government bonds. ABN Amro already did so at the end of last month. Higher interest rates on government bonds make them more attractive as an alternative for corporate bonds, said Van Lanschot Kempen in a recent asset allocation update. The interest rate on German bunds stood at 0.96 percent on Friday, whereas it was still in negative territory in March.
“Equities remain more attractive than bonds, although the huge sell-off in the bond market has closed the gap somewhat,” BlackRock wrote in a market commentary. Last week, the asset manager went underweight Asian equities and bought investment grade credit and European government bonds instead.
“Government bonds may start to offset risk elsewhere,” BNY Mellon IM portfolio manager Howard Cunningham told Bloomberg. “We are not betting that the rise in yields will reverse, but government bonds may start to do their job.” Head of interest rate strategy Adam Kurpiel of Société Générale SA told the agency he again saw a clearer negative correlation between bond prices and equities.
Views on bonds
That is not to say that asset managers have a positive view on government bonds. Van Lanschot Kempen maintains a ‘substantial underweight’ in government bonds, the bank writes, because of the fundamentally low capital market interest rates, which could rise further, according to portfolio manager Joost van Leenders. “But we also see that interest rates have risen sharply in the recent period.”
US government paper, too, with an interest rate of 2.84 percent, is well above the 1.63 percent at the beginning of the year. The recent high of 3.2 percent indicated that investors are buying Treasury bonds to protect their portfolios from weaker risk assets, one asset manager has said.
Alpha Research, which compares the asset allocations of more than 60 fund houses, referred to a “beginning of a trend” in government bonds. Some 3.6 percent of the asset managers analysed by the research bureau are positive about the category. In March, this was still zero percent.
According to Alpha Research, more than 70 percent of asset managers have an underweight position in government bonds, more than 25 percent have a neutral view, while almost 4 percent are overweight.
Commodities
Although commodities have already made a considerable run upwards, asset managers still see plenty of upside potential. Pimco has long positions in a diversified basket of commodities and currencies linked to them, according to three portfolio managers at the bond house, which saw 10 percent of its assets under management in open-ended funds and ETFs shrink between September and March, according to Morningstar figures.
Pimco also finds emerging-market currencies linked to commodities “particularly attractive” because they offer higher yields and still have room to rise. For example, our select basket of EM currencies is currently yielding more than 6.5 per cent,’ say the portfolio managers. “Unlike equities and bonds, which struggle in an environment of rising interest rates, certain emerging market currencies can benefit from higher interest rates.”
At Van Lanschot Kempen, the overweight in commodities is still the only one, Van Leenders wrote. “The trend is still slightly upwards. Base metals have fallen recently, reflecting concerns about growth in China in particular. But oil prices and especially agricultural prices have continued to rise.”
Demand for commodities may ease a little with lower growth, the portfolio manager agrees, “but inventories are generally low and the geopolitical situation increases the risk of scarcity.” “Furthermore, investors in this category benefit from the fact that the prices of future contracts are still lower than the spot price, which contributes to returns.”
This article was originally published on InvestmentOfficer.nl.