Asset Allocation

Talk of the need to lower exposure to U.S. assets grew louder this week, but asset managers in Europe are not abandoning the country. Recent market moves, they argue, do not justify a strategic shift away from the U.S., with equities rebounding toward record highs after signs of progress on Greenland at talks in Davos.

Donald Trump’s return to the Davos stage on Wednesday has sharpened investor focus on Europe’s exposure to a world in which geopolitics is once again shaping trade, security and capital allocation. “Everything has changed,” said Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet.

As global leaders and investors arrive in Davos this week, the central question for markets is no longer whether geopolitics matters, but how quickly political risk is being priced into assets. Donald Trump’s return to the World Economic Forum, where he is due to speak on Wednesday, comes at a moment when institutional credibility, fiscal discipline and capital concentration have become investment variables rather than background noise.

Anyone following geopolitical tensions, the noise around China and the ongoing turmoil coming out of Washington might expect investors to turn defensive. The opposite emerged at the CIO panel during the Investment Officer New Year’s Perspectives 2026 in Amsterdam on Thursday. Chief investment officers from ING, Van Lanschot Kempen, ABN Amro and Rabobank are not retreating, but positioning with intent. Their shared view was that the greatest risk is not geopolitics itself, but investment decisions driven by fear. That perspective ran through the discussion.

President Donald Trump’s call to cap U.S. credit card interest rates at 10 percent is weighing on bank stocks and raising broader concerns about consumer credit and confidence.

When United States forces seized President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, the political shock was immediate. The market reaction was not. Oil prices barely moved, investors stayed largely on the sidelines and attention quickly shifted from what had happened in Caracas to what it might reveal about how Washington now intends to wield power beyond its borders.

Europe’s banks are heading into 2026 with solid balance sheets, but with less room for error. After an unusually long credit cycle, risks are building just as the economic environment becomes more uncertain, according to Scope Ratings’ European Bank Outlook 2026.

In private credit, institutional investors face their biggest risk not in the asset class itself, but in selecting the general partner. Interviews with private market insiders suggest the real danger is a lack of scrutiny of managers.

The global race to dominate artificial intelligence may feel a world away from Luxembourg, yet the Grand Duchy’s private banks and asset managers are watching the frenzy with growing interest.

At the World Pensions Conference in London, experts pointed to Australia and Canada as models Europe can no longer ignore when it comes to investing in private markets.