Asset Allocation

Artificial intelligence has unsettled software stocks for months. Now it is testing European credit markets and exposing fault lines in parts of private credit that were sold to investors as stable and uncorrelated. “If the software issue remains isolated, markets can cope. If it bleeds into the real economy, then all bets are off.”

Rising budget deficits have caused government bonds to lose much of their appeal as a safe haven for investors. High-quality corporate bonds have subsequently moved up the ranks. Has the rally run its course? Samuel Gruen, fixed income specialist at Rothschild & Co Asset Management, examined the European market from a historical perspective.

Sustainable funds recorded their first full year of net outflows in 2025, after investors withdrew 84 billion dollars from ESG strategies worldwide, according to Morningstar data. While the headline figure suggests a sharp break with previous years, Morningstar said it overstates the extent to which investors are abandoning sustainable investing.

The silver price appears to be breaking with its traditional pattern. Where the metal has historically followed gold with a delay, silver is now moving more independently and at a faster pace. According to market participants, the recent rally is less a reaction to geopolitical tensions than the result of structural changes in the balance between supply and demand.

Donald Trump’s return to the Davos stage on Wednesday has sharpened investor focus on Europe’s exposure to a world in which geopolitics is once again shaping trade, security and capital allocation. “Everything has changed,” said Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet.

Talk of the need to lower exposure to U.S. assets grew louder this week, but asset managers in Europe are not abandoning the country. Recent market moves, they argue, do not justify a strategic shift away from the U.S., with equities rebounding toward record highs after signs of progress on Greenland at talks in Davos.

As global leaders and investors arrive in Davos this week, the central question for markets is no longer whether geopolitics matters, but how quickly political risk is being priced into assets. Donald Trump’s return to the World Economic Forum, where he is due to speak on Wednesday, comes at a moment when institutional credibility, fiscal discipline and capital concentration have become investment variables rather than background noise.

Anyone following geopolitical tensions, the noise around China and the ongoing turmoil coming out of Washington might expect investors to turn defensive. The opposite emerged at the CIO panel during the Investment Officer New Year’s Perspectives 2026 in Amsterdam on Thursday. Chief investment officers from ING, Van Lanschot Kempen, ABN Amro and Rabobank are not retreating, but positioning with intent. Their shared view was that the greatest risk is not geopolitics itself, but investment decisions driven by fear. That perspective ran through the discussion.

President Donald Trump’s call to cap U.S. credit card interest rates at 10 percent is weighing on bank stocks and raising broader concerns about consumer credit and confidence.

When United States forces seized President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, the political shock was immediate. The market reaction was not. Oil prices barely moved, investors stayed largely on the sidelines and attention quickly shifted from what had happened in Caracas to what it might reveal about how Washington now intends to wield power beyond its borders.