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Geopolitical tensions reshape investors’ trust in Treasuries

The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas challenges the appeal of US government bonds as a traditional safe haven. 

Typically, geopolitical tensions drive short-term market moves towards safer assets like cash and US government bonds. However, on Wednesday, the yield on ten-year US government bonds increased by 0.07 percentage points to 4.9 percent, its highest since 2007. The 30-year bond yield also rose to 5 percent. 

Problems in China upset even enthusiasts

Chinese growth is disappointing. Global asset managers are liquidating large parts of their equity positions in the country, resulting in falling share prices. It seems like a godsend for bargain hunters, but passionate China investors are also on their toes.

China is not growing fast enough, so investors have been liquidating their positions in Chinese stocks at an unprecedented rate.

Falling dollar puts spotlight on ‘underinvested’ currencies

Declining inflation in the United States is pushing down the dollar. Analysts expect a more prominent role for currencies from emerging markets.

There are ‘strong indications’ that the decreasing US inflation figures, resulting in a lower interest rate expectation in the United States, have triggered the start of a cyclical decline of the dollar, say ING’s currency analysts, Frank Turner, and Francesco Pesole, in a note to investors.

Allianz CIO: ‘Monetary policy is really starting to bite’

The Federal Reserve’s predicted interest rate peak between 5.5% and 5.75% has left many asset managers uncertain about their rate forecasts for the second half of the year. However, Franck Dixmier, the global CIO at Allianz Global Investors, is undeterred by this ambiguity, stating, “Monetary policy is really starting to bite now.”

Credit crunch risks overshadow US earnings

In the U.S., a surge in deposits from small to medium-sized lenders is leading to a credit crunch across the country as smaller financial institutions sell mortgages and bonds at record pace to offset losses. This looming crisis is causing concern within financial markets about how it will affect economic growth moving forward.