Max Severijns

German judges handed down an important verdict this week: EU treaties are no obstacle to shared debt in the union. The ruling comes shortly after the European Commission called for new joint injections into the economy. “As an investor I would carefully reconsider my bond portfolio,” one critic warns.

On Tuesday, the German constitutional court in Karlsruhe ruled that “exceptional” EU loans to overcome problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic do not violate European treaties.

Chinese stocks are in a sell-off following Xi Jinping’s power grab. “Tighter state control of the Chinese economy warrants a higher risk premium.”

As real estate markets worldwide move in tandem by showing clear signs of a downturn, two major international financial bodies this week have reiterated their concerns over the housing market’s potential impact on financial stability. Both the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have raised a red flag. Investment Officer looks for answers to some key questions a moment that mortgage rates are at their highest since 2006.

Many investors are on the fence about re-entering the badly battered bond market when the bottom may be near. The smart ones will want to enter the market well before interest rates hit their peak, says Michael Gitlin, partner and head of fixed income at Capital Group.

US stocks appear to have entered the ‘final stages’ of a bear market. But the final low for the S&P 500 is seen around the 3000 to 3400 point level, which would represent a drop of another 16 per cent from last week’s close. Current conditions are such that financial accidents can easily happen, some market watchers warn.

Panic appears to rule the world’s most liquid financial market, the foreign exchange market. The Bank of England had to announce emergency measures on Wednesday to stop the pound’s dump. Behind the panic is a systemic crisis: a dramatic fall in European currencies against the dollar, an analysis shows.

Not only the pound, but also the euro has been failing against the dollar for more than a year. Falling currencies are eating into investors’ returns and specialists believe that their devaluation against the dollar will not bottom out for the time being.

“Capital markets are in complete disarray and we are detecting structural changes,” said Ewout van Schaick, head of multi assets at NN Investment Partners, talking to InvestmentOfficer.nl in a podcast interview. 

The era of negative interest rates on government bonds is over, but the moment when government bonds will again generate both portfolio protection and returns is still far away. Especially in Europe, the situation is tough. The ECB has its hands tied. The need to save Italy means Eurozone interest rates can only rise so much. “Make no mistake about it: the next six months won’t be pretty.”

Last quarter, the Shanghai A-share Index did 11 per cent better than the S&P 500 and 15 per cent better than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Still, sentiment on China is gloomy. The negativity is fuelled by large amounts of bad news. 

With stock market indicators showing rapid growth, what is happening? Is the bear market ending or is this just a regular bear market rally that will soon end? Some way we might be facing a recovery, others say that it’s just hopeless optimism.