Chart of the week: Rising rates reduce appeal of stocks
Bond yields have shot up worldwide. The US 10-year yield stands at 2.90 percent compared to 1.50 percent at the beginning of the year. This has led not only to one of the biggest falls in bond prices ever, but also to a less attractive valuation of equities.
Chart of the week: What do we really know about inflation?
Most research papers on inflation focus on the period from 1950, after World War II, or from the 1980s after former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker destroyed inflation with a mighty series of interest rate hikes.
Chart of the week: end of the housing bubble?
US mortgage rates have shot up since the start of this year. The 30-year fixed rate stands at 4.5 percent, the highest level since the start of 2019. Will this bring an end to the housing boom?
Contradicting investors
I am a fan of the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. Not only because this survey covers many important investment themes or because the respondents are exclusively investors, as opposed to “connoisseurs” who give their opinions from the sidelines. The survey also regularly exposes the inconsistent behaviour of investors.
On the way to a new recession?
The difference between US 10-year and 2-year yields has fallen to around 45 basis points. That is a flattening of the US yield curve of almost a full percentage point in the last four months. It raises the question of whether a new recession is imminent.
US Treasuries gaining appeal
US 10-year yields rose above 2.0 percent last week. The last time 10-year yields were above 2.0 percent was in July 2019. With skyrocketing inflation and the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes in mind, that probably does not sound so crazy. Yet our model estimate for US 10-year yields points in the opposite direction.
We estimate US 10-year yields using the following factors:
- US unemployment rate
Making most of it while you sleep
After its famous ARK vs. Berkshire Hathaway chart, the Financial Times recently published another strong chart. It shows that the overnight return, the return between the closing and opening of the stock exchange, is many times higher than the return realised during regular stock exchange hours.
How supply chain disruption threatens the stock rally
Contrary to what many central bankers and economists expect, “supply chain disruptions” are still ubiquitous. Indeed, a quick glance at delivery times, inventories and freight costs shows that supply chain disruptions are getting worse rather than less. That could put an end, at least temporarily, to the equity rally, has written Jeroen Blokland, multi-asset specialist and founder of the research platform True Insights, in his first weekly contribution to Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s sister publication.