Jeroen Blokland

The word is out! Fed Chair Jay Powell is considering stopping the reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. If you think that balance sheet has slimmed down significantly after three years of quantitative tightening, you’re mistaken. Moreover, Powell is putting himself in an impossible position once again by lowering interest rates at the same time.

So far this year, the euro has appreciated by no less than 13 percent against the US dollar. That drop in the dollar’s value — because that’s what it really is — was first explained as America discarding its “exceptionalism” under Trump.

As I’m still reflecting on the Fund Event 2025, where it became objectively clear that Europe needs to take action and learn to look at and approach things differently, the United States just keeps steaming ahead.

Stocks are extremely expensive, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets collapse. The next mega market crisis already has a name: the bursting of the AI bubble.

UK inflation is far too high, and the policy rate is far too low. That might sound odd, but if you look at the regime we’ve been in for more than seventeen years now, the statement makes perfect sense. Let me explain why.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

Lovely vacation or not, some things never change. Like the seemingly endless task of filling lunch boxes for school kids. But also, France’s political instability never ends. The simple reason is that the underlying problem—its budget mess—can no longer be cleaned up.

Now that several major trade deals—however skewed and ambiguous—have been announced, markets are left searching for the next catalyst to keep the bull market alive. One likely candidate can be found in some rented office space in Washington.

While many economists were once again forecasting a recession and plenty of so-called market experts were calling an end to the rally, equity markets are celebrating summer with new record highs. I’m curious to see how they’ll explain their latest miss.