Jeroen Blokland

As I’m still reflecting on the Fund Event 2025, where it became objectively clear that Europe needs to take action and learn to look at and approach things differently, the United States just keeps steaming ahead.

Stocks are extremely expensive, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets collapse. The next mega market crisis already has a name: the bursting of the AI bubble.

UK inflation is far too high, and the policy rate is far too low. That might sound odd, but if you look at the regime we’ve been in for more than seventeen years now, the statement makes perfect sense. Let me explain why.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

Lovely vacation or not, some things never change. Like the seemingly endless task of filling lunch boxes for school kids. But also, France’s political instability never ends. The simple reason is that the underlying problem—its budget mess—can no longer be cleaned up.

Now that several major trade deals—however skewed and ambiguous—have been announced, markets are left searching for the next catalyst to keep the bull market alive. One likely candidate can be found in some rented office space in Washington.

While many economists were once again forecasting a recession and plenty of so-called market experts were calling an end to the rally, equity markets are celebrating summer with new record highs. I’m curious to see how they’ll explain their latest miss.

Developments in public finances are unfolding at such a rapid pace that there’s barely time left to look at asset prices themselves. But if you take a step back, it’s hard not to conclude that we are witnessing a regime shift. So why is hardly anyone talking about it?

Each week, I think about which macro figure or market theme to explore in this column. Then, out of nowhere, another article pops up about that enormous elephant in the room: our debt-fueled economic system is creaking so loudly that it can’t be ignored.