Jeroen Blokland

Yes, they’re back again. With rising interest rates firmly on investors’ minds worldwide, the doom-mongers are crawling out from under their rocks to once again predict the bursting of the ‘extremely expensive’ tech bubble. But I have my doubts.

Scarce assets such as gold and bitcoin were among the best-performing investment categories of the past year. Yet, they received barely any attention in the endless series of (dull) outlooks from major investment banks and asset managers. Fortunately, there are always exceptions that prove the rule.

Every year, I look with some amazement at the annual forecasts from the major financial institutions—particularly the expected returns that sit squarely near the long-term average. You can be almost certain these predictions won’t materialize.

The financial media are buzzing with stories about the impact of Donald Trump as president, questions surrounding the supposedly high valuation of equities, the collapse of Germany, and the meteoric rise in the price of bitcoin. However, these headlines overshadow the troubling developments in the world’s second-largest economy. It’s time to address that imbalance.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” A cliché in financial markets, but no less relevant because of it. The “surprising” surge in confidence among American smallcaps is no exception.

Some macroeconomic indicators carry more weight than others. But does this mean investors always pay attention to the right ones? I doubt it. That’s why, in this column, I focus on a once-reliable recession predictor whose effectiveness is fading, and another indicator that actually determines recessions—but is largely overlooked.

Financial journalists and market experts have a new gimmick: the “Trump trade”. With another four years of the Trump show ahead, we might derive all sorts of investment ideas from the yet-to-be-implemented policies. But I have my doubts about most of these trades—not only whether they will yield good returns, but also whether they even exist in the first place.

Fed Chair Powell has made no secret of it: he and his colleagues aim to bring interest rates back to the elusive, yet undefined, neutral rate. To reinforce this narrative, the FOMC members filled their forecasts with a significant number of expected rate cuts. However, the question now arises: does inflation actually permit this?

Since the news broke that Donald Trump will once again become President of the United States, bitcoin has been impossible to ignore. Not only because of its record-high prices but also because bitcoin’s acceptance as an investment class and alternative form of “value” appears to be accelerating.

I often read that stocks are incredibly expensive and that a significant correction is “imminent.” But I actually think it’s not as dramatic as it seems. It all depends on the valuation lens you use.