Jeroen Blokland

Meer dan tien jaar schrijf ik al stukjes voor beleggers, economen en iedereen die maar enige interesse heeft in de financiële markten. Vooral extreem negatieve verhalen, verhalen over de waan van de dag of verhalen met een overdreven titel doen het goed. Hoewel ik zo nu en dan in categorie één wordt gestopt, ben ik meestal niet zo goed in zulke verhalen. Maar vandaag heb ik een onderwerp dat elke dag bovenaan de hitlijsten staat: Artificial Intelligence.

I have been watching the financial markets with some amazement for the past few weeks. A US president threatening the eradication of an entire society, while equity markets remain largely unchanged. Then a fresh TACO triggers a recovery rally of several percent, even though there is nothing more than a two-week ceasefire and ongoing uncertainty. For anyone looking even slightly ahead, a clear bump appears that we will all have to get over.

If there is one thing that characterizes the investment world, it is that it is full of clichés, parrots, and an enormous reluctance to change. It is sometimes laughable how market experts produce the same one-liners for twenty years or bury you under their “market wisdom.”

The signals that citizens and businesses are willing to leave their country if the tax burden becomes high enough are increasing rapidly. As a result, an economic theory that is already fifty years old—and long dismissed as meaningless fantasy—is suddenly taking center stage.

The price of a barrel of crude oil surged past the $100 mark as the situation in the Middle East escalated further. A small price to pay, according to the president of the United States. Yet I suspect Trump is taking too narrow a view of the true cost of this new military intervention – if he is even considering those costs at all.

Even before stock market trading in March had really gotten underway, we already knew this month would end up in the history books. You also have to be particularly creative now to write a column that does not touch on what is happening in the Middle East. So here is the expected topic, but with a twist.

AI is not a bubble by definition. But the investment wave surrounding it is. The first hairline cracks are now clearly visible, and comparisons with the run-up to the global financial crisis are becoming hard to dismiss.

Since Trump’s reelection as president of the United States, the world has been on edge. Geopolitical tensions are dominating the markets, and the role of the dollar is once again under discussion. Still, I find it difficult to translate that into the idea that this is the moment for the euro to step out of the greenback’s shadow. There are simply too many loose ends.

Here in Milan, during the Olympic Games, only one thing matters: winning. In geopolitics, the battle for victory has now been pushed to an unprecedented level. But whether we in rustic Europe are truly aware of that, I wonder.

With a new Fed chair on the way, subject to approval by the U.S. Senate, it seemed like a good moment to take another look at “inflation.” And especially at inflation expectations, because they largely determine the behavior of consumers and investors alike. What I see is far from reassuring.