Jeroen Blokland

The German elections have resulted in a victory for the CDU/CSU. That was not entirely unexpected. The same cannot be said for the historic defeat of the SPD, which recorded its worst result since 1887.

A beneficial side effect of President Trump is that we can trash all incoming macro figures without further analysis. That saves time and provides space to focus on what will almost certainly be a titanic battle: Powell vs Trump.

Investing is rarely straightforward. And with an unpredictable individual at the helm of the world’s most influential country, it certainly doesn’t get any easier. However, to consistently dismiss the man as ‘dumb’ as a coping strategy is far too simplistic. You can say many (unpleasant) things about Donald Trump, but ‘dumb’ is not necessarily one of them.

A Chinese AI disruptor shakes up Big Tech—DeepSeek challenges the AI status quo, promising cheaper, efficient models. What does this mean for productivity and markets? asks Jeroen Blokland.

Yes, they’re back again. With rising interest rates firmly on investors’ minds worldwide, the doom-mongers are crawling out from under their rocks to once again predict the bursting of the ‘extremely expensive’ tech bubble. But I have my doubts.

Scarce assets such as gold and bitcoin were among the best-performing investment categories of the past year. Yet, they received barely any attention in the endless series of (dull) outlooks from major investment banks and asset managers. Fortunately, there are always exceptions that prove the rule.

Every year, I look with some amazement at the annual forecasts from the major financial institutions—particularly the expected returns that sit squarely near the long-term average. You can be almost certain these predictions won’t materialize.

The financial media are buzzing with stories about the impact of Donald Trump as president, questions surrounding the supposedly high valuation of equities, the collapse of Germany, and the meteoric rise in the price of bitcoin. However, these headlines overshadow the troubling developments in the world’s second-largest economy. It’s time to address that imbalance.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” A cliché in financial markets, but no less relevant because of it. The “surprising” surge in confidence among American smallcaps is no exception.

Some macroeconomic indicators carry more weight than others. But does this mean investors always pay attention to the right ones? I doubt it. That’s why, in this column, I focus on a once-reliable recession predictor whose effectiveness is fading, and another indicator that actually determines recessions—but is largely overlooked.