Jeroen Blokland

Now that Trump has been taking things a bit easier over the past few weeks, stock valuations have become the topic dominating the markets. Market commentators are tripping over each other to declare how wildly overvalued the big tech names supposedly are. It’s a lot of parroting, really, while the actual numbers tell a more nuanced story.

It took a little longer than expected, but the delayed US inflation figure for October came in just slightly below expectations. That means that, by the time this column is published, the Federal Reserve will have cut interest rates by another quarter point, and—unless something strange happens—another quarter point cut will follow in December.

The title of this column is the Chinese word for “mirage” or “illusion.” Hot air, in other words. Just like the impressive Chinese growth figure that was proudly announced this week.

The word is out! Fed Chair Jay Powell is considering stopping the reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. If you think that balance sheet has slimmed down significantly after three years of quantitative tightening, you’re mistaken. Moreover, Powell is putting himself in an impossible position once again by lowering interest rates at the same time.

So far this year, the euro has appreciated by no less than 13 percent against the US dollar. That drop in the dollar’s value — because that’s what it really is — was first explained as America discarding its “exceptionalism” under Trump.

As I’m still reflecting on the Fund Event 2025, where it became objectively clear that Europe needs to take action and learn to look at and approach things differently, the United States just keeps steaming ahead.

Stocks are extremely expensive, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets collapse. The next mega market crisis already has a name: the bursting of the AI bubble.

UK inflation is far too high, and the policy rate is far too low. That might sound odd, but if you look at the regime we’ve been in for more than seventeen years now, the statement makes perfect sense. Let me explain why.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.