Jeroen Blokland

Whether you walk away believing that President Trump will make the world “fairer,” dream of Trumpian tax cuts and deregulation, or recoil at his trade wars and extreme unpredictability, the harsh reality is that all of it inevitably comes with more volatility and less growth.

The markets crashed this week, so it’s only a matter of time before juicy headlines start popping up on (social) media eager to pour fuel on the fire. But I have to admit, I didn’t quite see this one from Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf coming: “Pension funds tremble amid stock market turmoil.”

This week marked the 22nd edition of the Mining Forum Europe in Zurich. For a long time, it was an insider-only event mainly attended by mining companies, but with the recent surge in the gold price, there was much more room this time for a broader, macro-driven perspective.

“The total value of Dutch securities holdings reached nearly 3,500 billion euros in 2024.” It’s one of those headlines—this one from the Dutch Central Bank (DNB)—that most investors overlook, let alone actually read. But behind that enormous figure lies a world that once again shows how deeply entrenched the traditional investment industry remains in an outdated mantra.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of copper has risen by over 20 percent. So, Dr. Copper is telling us loud and clear that a recession isn’t coming. Right?

In recent weeks, an old-fashioned “self-fulfilling prophecy” appears to be taking shape. To ensure that the Republicans remain in power in two and four years, it is crucial for Trump to give the economy and markets a blow now.

The markets were already on edge, and there seems to be little sign of that changing any time soon. Geopolitical tensions have reached fever pitch, culminating in an outright shouting match in the Oval Office in Washington. This development could have significant consequences, as Trump currently appears unwilling to provide aid to Ukraine.

The German elections have resulted in a victory for the CDU/CSU. That was not entirely unexpected. The same cannot be said for the historic defeat of the SPD, which recorded its worst result since 1887.

A beneficial side effect of President Trump is that we can trash all incoming macro figures without further analysis. That saves time and provides space to focus on what will almost certainly be a titanic battle: Powell vs Trump.

Investing is rarely straightforward. And with an unpredictable individual at the helm of the world’s most influential country, it certainly doesn’t get any easier. However, to consistently dismiss the man as ‘dumb’ as a coping strategy is far too simplistic. You can say many (unpleasant) things about Donald Trump, but ‘dumb’ is not necessarily one of them.