Jeroen Blokland

Developments in public finances are unfolding at such a rapid pace that there’s barely time left to look at asset prices themselves. But if you take a step back, it’s hard not to conclude that we are witnessing a regime shift. So why is hardly anyone talking about it?

Each week, I think about which macro figure or market theme to explore in this column. Then, out of nowhere, another article pops up about that enormous elephant in the room: our debt-fueled economic system is creaking so loudly that it can’t be ignored.

It’s done. With the deciding vote cast—no less—by Vice President J.D. Vance, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed in the US Senate. Yet another piece of evidence that bond investors stubbornly refuse to acknowledge: their asset class is becoming obsolete.

Under control. No, that title isn’t about Iranian airspace—although, with recent developments, an entire column could easily be dedicated to that as well. The title refers to the American consumer, who, despite all the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, has yet to throw in the towel.

European policymakers, economists, and politicians are in desperate need of a reality check—an awakening that brings them back down to earth and forces them to finally make effective, objective, and intelligent decisions. Something that has been missing for years.

Economists have a knack for elevating seemingly simple assumptions into so-called science—even though economics isn’t really a science at all. Nevertheless, endless books are written about a single abstract interest rate number.

Some periodic reports and studies are more informative and enjoyable than others. As far as I’m concerned, you can skip the obligatory and meaningless outlooks for the coming calendar year. I prefer to look at what investors are actually doing, rather than the usual December round-up, much of which is already outdated before the new year even begins.

Moody’s, the last of the major credit rating agencies to do so, has stripped the United States of its triple-A status. Old news, then? I wouldn’t go that far, given the timing of the decision. While not much may appear to be happening on the surface, policymakers, central banks, and politicians are working overtime behind the scenes.

Remember that BBC quiz show with the notoriously blunt Anne Robinson, who ended each round with the line, “You are the weakest link. Goodbye”? In The Weakest Link, the contestant deemed weakest by the others was eliminated—on the logic that a weak player could damage the prize pot. That sounds rather economic. So why is the European Central Bank (ECB) doing the exact opposite?

President Trump had it all envisioned. A copy-paste “Plaza Accord” that would enshrine him and the Mar-a-Lago Accord in the history books, securing the hegemony of the US dollar. But for now, it remains something Trump can only dream about.