Chart of the Week: a chart that argues against a recession
A new (American) recession remains a hot topic. And it’s understandable because a significant series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, coupled with an inverted yield curve, typically leads to economic trouble. You’d need a well-supported “this time is different” argument to claim there’s no chance of a recession.
Chart of the week: The great rebalancing
Government bonds have long enjoyed a special place in investors’ portfolios. Often seen as a cornerstone of stability, their appeal as a safe haven is rarely questioned.
Unfortunately, this is not the end of the carry trade
The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, and for those who did expect it, the increase was larger than expected. And so “all hell broke loose”.
Time to question the central bank herd mentality
Central bank analysis rarely goes beyond predicting the timing of the next interest rate step and the total number of interest rate steps that will be implemented over a given period, writes Jeroen Blokland.
Trump 2.0
Donald Trump still leads in the polls. This has sparked a surge in so-called ‘Trump trades,’ reminiscent of market reactions seen during his previous tenure.
Good news is ‘just’ good news again
We are at a crossroads when it comes to incoming macro data. While it was long hoped for some disappointing figures to give the Federal Reserve the final push to move away from the “higher-for-longer” faith, good news is now “just” good news again.
Schade Deutschland, alles ist vorbei
Columnist Jeroen Blokland takes a look at persistently declining industrial production in Germany.
Ferrytales
It is high time for asset managers to reassess their private equity allocations, argues Jeroen Blokland.
Will debt sink the American empire?
With the United States facing another daunting budget deficit of seven percent of GDP this year, such alarming depictions of debt are proliferating.
High interest rates as an explanation for strong economy? Nonsense!
Financial markets and economies are often inscrutable. As an investor, you just have to put up with that.