Jeroen Blokland

Since the beginning of this year, the price of copper has risen by over 20 percent. So, Dr. Copper is telling us loud and clear that a recession isn’t coming. Right?

In recent weeks, an old-fashioned “self-fulfilling prophecy” appears to be taking shape. To ensure that the Republicans remain in power in two and four years, it is crucial for Trump to give the economy and markets a blow now.

The markets were already on edge, and there seems to be little sign of that changing any time soon. Geopolitical tensions have reached fever pitch, culminating in an outright shouting match in the Oval Office in Washington. This development could have significant consequences, as Trump currently appears unwilling to provide aid to Ukraine.

The German elections have resulted in a victory for the CDU/CSU. That was not entirely unexpected. The same cannot be said for the historic defeat of the SPD, which recorded its worst result since 1887.

A beneficial side effect of President Trump is that we can trash all incoming macro figures without further analysis. That saves time and provides space to focus on what will almost certainly be a titanic battle: Powell vs Trump.

Investing is rarely straightforward. And with an unpredictable individual at the helm of the world’s most influential country, it certainly doesn’t get any easier. However, to consistently dismiss the man as ‘dumb’ as a coping strategy is far too simplistic. You can say many (unpleasant) things about Donald Trump, but ‘dumb’ is not necessarily one of them.

A Chinese AI disruptor shakes up Big Tech—DeepSeek challenges the AI status quo, promising cheaper, efficient models. What does this mean for productivity and markets? asks Jeroen Blokland.

Yes, they’re back again. With rising interest rates firmly on investors’ minds worldwide, the doom-mongers are crawling out from under their rocks to once again predict the bursting of the ‘extremely expensive’ tech bubble. But I have my doubts.

Scarce assets such as gold and bitcoin were among the best-performing investment categories of the past year. Yet, they received barely any attention in the endless series of (dull) outlooks from major investment banks and asset managers. Fortunately, there are always exceptions that prove the rule.

Every year, I look with some amazement at the annual forecasts from the major financial institutions—particularly the expected returns that sit squarely near the long-term average. You can be almost certain these predictions won’t materialize.