Jeroen Blokland

The European election results have sent shockwaves through traditional media and financial markets alike, primarily due to the significant shift towards right-wing parties.

The stock markets have had a fantastic rally. And while I am all for rising prices, it has also been a bit boring at times. But with the latest set of macro figures, things are getting a bit more exciting again, with a likely good outcome as a result.

I have regularly been called a “permabear” over the past 12 months, if not longer. Because even though the US economy in particular was steaming ahead, the chances of a recession have never been zero, in my opinion. 

US house prices have climbed over 6% in the past year, pushing the value of homes nearly 3% above their peak from June 2022. This increase came despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing rampant inflation. Clearly, the traditional models for predicting house prices are no longer reliable.

China’s recent massive sell-off of U.S. government bonds has financial headlines buzzing. This unprecedented move comes on the heels of President Biden’s decision to hike import tariffs on various “strategic” goods, including electric cars, by a staggering 200 to 400 percent.

In recent months, there has been a notable absence of discourse surrounding the prospect of a recession. The prevailing discussions among economists and financial analysts now revolve around whether we will experience a soft landing or no landing at all. The notion of a hard landing seems to have fallen out of favour. However, it is premature to entirely dismiss the possibility of a recession.

The U.S. economy has long enjoyed what might be called a Goldilocks scenario: robust growth paired with gradually declining inflation. However, recent data suggest that those days are behind us.

Take, for example, the recent GDP figures which illustrate a stark downturn. After quarters of 4.9% and 3.4% growth, the economy slowed to a mere 1.6% annualized growth in the first quarter of this year. 

China is currently navigating a precarious situation reminiscent of the mythical dilemma between Scylla and Charybdis, grappling with a persistent real estate slump and waning investment interest. Adding to the challenges, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s policies have further complicated the economic landscape for Chinese policymakers. The looming possibility of a currency devaluation sends a stark warning to global markets to brace for impact.

At the time of writing, the “mother of all equity indices,” the S&P 500 Index, is down a significant 4% from its early April peak. This downturn is partly driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Of course, this in itself isn’t something to cheer about. However, there’s another critical reason why stock prices are under pressure. Interest rates are inching closer to 5%, entering what many consider the danger zone.

This week, the following chart from the Financial Times caught my attention. It shows the net issuance of shares worldwide since 1999. Although the year is still relatively young, 2024 so far shows the largest negative issuance over this period.

As the chart also indicates, in recent years, it has become more common for more shares to “disappear” (often bought back in buyback programs) than are issued. To be precise, in four of the last nine years.

Growth has turned into our modern-day holy grail—a beacon that politicians, companies, and individuals relentlessly chase, often with promises and aspirations that border on the fantastical. Every election cycle, candidates tout it as their deliverable. Businesses chase perpetually climbing profits, and personal discontent brews if our earnings stagnate or our living spaces don’t expand. Yet, ironically, the signs increasingly suggest that, deep down, we might not truly crave this endless expansion.