Jeroen Blokland

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” A cliché in financial markets, but no less relevant because of it. The “surprising” surge in confidence among American smallcaps is no exception.

Some macroeconomic indicators carry more weight than others. But does this mean investors always pay attention to the right ones? I doubt it. That’s why, in this column, I focus on a once-reliable recession predictor whose effectiveness is fading, and another indicator that actually determines recessions—but is largely overlooked.

Financial journalists and market experts have a new gimmick: the “Trump trade”. With another four years of the Trump show ahead, we might derive all sorts of investment ideas from the yet-to-be-implemented policies. But I have my doubts about most of these trades—not only whether they will yield good returns, but also whether they even exist in the first place.

Fed Chair Powell has made no secret of it: he and his colleagues aim to bring interest rates back to the elusive, yet undefined, neutral rate. To reinforce this narrative, the FOMC members filled their forecasts with a significant number of expected rate cuts. However, the question now arises: does inflation actually permit this?

Since the news broke that Donald Trump will once again become President of the United States, bitcoin has been impossible to ignore. Not only because of its record-high prices but also because bitcoin’s acceptance as an investment class and alternative form of “value” appears to be accelerating.

I often read that stocks are incredibly expensive and that a significant correction is “imminent.” But I actually think it’s not as dramatic as it seems. It all depends on the valuation lens you use.

In our increasingly polarised society, political messages are more frequently being ‘hidden’ within economic analyses. With the US presidential election approaching, the number of these messages is growing, with the truth often bending slightly to accommodate them.

US inflation has fallen back to 2.4 per cent, not far from the Federal Reserve’s target. In Europe, the inflation levels of the largest economies are already well below the 2 per cent target of the Bank of England and the ECB, just as we saw in the years before Covid.

I was brought up in an investment era where bond investors proudly positioned themselves as “smart money” investors, in contrast to the “dumb money” crowd that invested in equity markets. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that these bond aficionados may need to relinquish their self-awarded title.

Soaring oil prices, solid job growth, and a seemingly unhurried Powell have forced markets to significantly scale back expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, Powell and his colleagues will be in for a lot of trouble if they don’t cut rates at each of the upcoming meetings.