Jeroen Blokland

I was brought up in an investment era where bond investors proudly positioned themselves as “smart money” investors, in contrast to the “dumb money” crowd that invested in equity markets. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that these bond aficionados may need to relinquish their self-awarded title.

Soaring oil prices, solid job growth, and a seemingly unhurried Powell have forced markets to significantly scale back expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, Powell and his colleagues will be in for a lot of trouble if they don’t cut rates at each of the upcoming meetings.

Inflation in the Eurozone has fallen to 1.8 percent. This marks the first time since June 2021 that inflation in September dropped below the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Despite many experts claiming that the central bank interest rate can’t be lowered much this time, the ECB now has plenty of reasons with this latest inflation figure to significantly cut interest rates.

It can hardly have escaped your notice: gold is hot! The gold price is currently breaking record after record, and even the ‘mainstream’ financial media can no longer ignore the yellow metal. But when I read these stories, they mostly raise a lot of questions for me. Are traditional investors really that naive now, or are they deliberately looking the other way?

Many investors mistakenly conclude that China and the United States are completely different due to their distinct financial (and societal) systems. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Both nations’ faltering economic engines are kept running by the same remedy: debt.

Former ECB president and prime minister of Italy, Mario Draghi, has written a report containing the obvious yet completely unnecessary conclusion that Europe has completely missed the boat on innovation and competitiveness. ‘Duh!’

The equity allocation of US households has risen to 60 percent. The last time stocks had this much weight in the average retail portfolio was during the ‘Dotcom’ bubble. This can leave one to conclude that a stock market crisis is imminent.

A new (American) recession remains a hot topic. And it’s understandable because a significant series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, coupled with an inverted yield curve, typically leads to economic trouble. You’d need a well-supported “this time is different” argument to claim there’s no chance of a recession.

Government bonds have long enjoyed a special place in investors’ portfolios. Often seen as a cornerstone of stability, their appeal as a safe haven is rarely questioned.

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, and for those who did expect it, the increase was larger than expected. And so “all hell broke loose”.