Jeroen Blokland

France reported a few weeks ago that its already exorbitant budget deficit of 4.9 per cent of French GDP would be breached. And that was no lie. According to statistics agency Insee, the budget for 2023 will go into the minus by a whopping 5.5 per cent. And with that, the chances of France becoming a second Italy are rapidly increasing.

Over the past year, Nvidia’s stock has soared by more than 200%, igniting talks of a “bubble” among the self-proclaimed financial seers. But what precisely do we mean by a “bubble”? This term, often thrown around loosely, lacks a consistent definition among its most vocal proponents.

Comparatively minimal macroeconomic news of substance emerges from China; however, the information that does reach me through Bloomberg and other outlets offers little cause for optimism. To illustrate the initial point: a decade ago, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released over 80,000 economic indicators; presently, this figure has dwindled to fewer than 10,000.

In the ever-escalating tech tug-of-war between China and the United States, the dragon nation is unleashing a full-scale mobilization to propel its technological prowess forward. The gloves are off as the U.S. and its partners continue to throw up roadblocks, ushering in an era of deglobalization, at least on the political front.

This week, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the UK’s new budget. Since the September 2022 debacle, when Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s bizarre tax plan almost brought the UK’s pension and insurance system to the brink of collapse, the extra attention has been justified. In the end, the Bank of England had to intervene to “save the furniture”, as the Belgians say. This earned Liz Truss the dubious honour of the shortest-serving prime minister.

This column is not about where that economic recession remains, but about an earnings recession that has passed. At least, if my global profit indicator is to be believed.

The recent inflation bombshell must have rattled Powell and his cohorts, throwing a wrench into their plans for imminent rate cuts in pursuit of a smooth economic descent. Equities, too, find themselves on shakier ground.

It’s fascinating to observe central bankers like Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell outside their usual realm, especially on platforms like CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Powell’s candid admission about the US being on an unsustainable fiscal path is a concern is shared by many investors, including myself, particularly regarding the sustainability of mounting debt used to stimulate economic growth.

“I’ve got to say, I’m usually skeptical of the phrase “This time is different.” More often than not, it’s not. But the persistent strength of the U.S. economy, particularly the job market, is making me think twice. Maybe this time really is different.

With many aspects, a distant perspective can be quite enlightening. This certainly applies to monetary policy, in my view. The more I distance myself, the more evident it becomes that for some central banks, debt management, rather than inflation – as officially proclaimed – is their primary objective. Japan is a prime example.