Jeroen Blokland

Markets can often be inscrutable, as seen in December’s US inflation data, which showed a rise in headline inflation to 3.4 percent, unexpectedly surpassing the forecast of 3.2 percent.

Shares have been muddling along since, in a reaction seemingly consistent with these figures. Yet, this contradicts the trends observed in recent months. 

I am captivated by a recent chart from Bloomberg that illustrates the anticipated movements in interest rates by central banks globally. What particularly catches my attention is Japan, represented in yellow on the far right of the chart.

The imminent decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a series of U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is stirring up the Bitcoin investment community. While many investors are caught up in a typical “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario, it’s crucial to consider the long-term implications on Bitcoin, guided by what I term the “7% principle”.

A major hazard for investors is becoming too entrenched in their beliefs, especially when evidence suggests a different narrative. While the idea of a “soft landing” may seem overly optimistic, it’s undeniable that some bastions of investment remain resilient, as evidenced by sustained corporate profits.

Mismatch

These days, it is almost impossible not to talk about gold or bitcoin - for me, these two assets are close in what they offer investors. So I do just that. What strikes me most is the extreme divergence that has emerged in a traditionally very strong relationship.

Skyrocketing mortgage rates and astronomical house prices make it almost impossible for the average American to buy a house. So activity declines. The result is a drag on growth.

The US 30-year mortgage rate, while falling slightly, is still close to its highest level in more than 23 years. Nevertheless, house prices have risen to record highs after a brief dip. This is only nice if you own a house, because otherwise it is an unfavourable combination economically.

Let me begin by stating my agreement that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates imminently. However, basing this expectation solely on the latest inflation figures seems overly optimistic. The recent data, after all, were not exceptionally positive.

If you’re a regular on platforms like X or LinkedIn, you’ve likely encountered those attention-grabbing posts proclaiming, “If you’re not using AI, you’re left behind” or “My boss thinks I’m an AI genius, but it’s because of this…” followed by a link to some Substack or website. Such posts, often cheap advertising, may overstate the productivity boost from Artificial Intelligence (AI).

China faces a complex challenge as it aims to further stimulate its economy amidst a relentless property crisis while avoiding the repercussions of a devalued currency. It’s a delicate tightrope walk that could see the nation persistently offloading US bonds and equities.

The Chinese government is poised to inject an additional one trillion yuan into its faltering economy. The persistent property sector woes show no signs of abating and are now seeping into banking, construction, and retail.

Interest rates are shooting up and in some cases have reached the highest levels in decades. The share prices of US regional banks are collapsing again. And yet reports of new collapsing banks remain absent. Why?

Deposits!

The chart below provides the answer to that question. Despite continued competition with money market funds, deposits of smaller US banks are steadily increasing. Compared to a year ago, there has been a modest growth of 2 per cent.