Jeroen Blokland

Some periodic reports and studies are more informative and enjoyable than others. As far as I’m concerned, you can skip the obligatory and meaningless outlooks for the coming calendar year. I prefer to look at what investors are actually doing, rather than the usual December round-up, much of which is already outdated before the new year even begins.

Moody’s, the last of the major credit rating agencies to do so, has stripped the United States of its triple-A status. Old news, then? I wouldn’t go that far, given the timing of the decision. While not much may appear to be happening on the surface, policymakers, central banks, and politicians are working overtime behind the scenes.

Remember that BBC quiz show with the notoriously blunt Anne Robinson, who ended each round with the line, “You are the weakest link. Goodbye”? In The Weakest Link, the contestant deemed weakest by the others was eliminated—on the logic that a weak player could damage the prize pot. That sounds rather economic. So why is the European Central Bank (ECB) doing the exact opposite?

President Trump had it all envisioned. A copy-paste “Plaza Accord” that would enshrine him and the Mar-a-Lago Accord in the history books, securing the hegemony of the US dollar. But for now, it remains something Trump can only dream about.

I remain endlessly amazed by how traditional investors continue to cling to outdated assumptions and clichés. Just last week, another firm once again refused to honor a client’s strong desire to expand their limited mix of just two asset classes. For tactical reasons, I’ll refrain from sharing the usual fallacies used to justify this.

Whether you walk away believing that President Trump will make the world “fairer,” dream of Trumpian tax cuts and deregulation, or recoil at his trade wars and extreme unpredictability, the harsh reality is that all of it inevitably comes with more volatility and less growth.

The markets crashed this week, so it’s only a matter of time before juicy headlines start popping up on (social) media eager to pour fuel on the fire. But I have to admit, I didn’t quite see this one from Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf coming: “Pension funds tremble amid stock market turmoil.”

This week marked the 22nd edition of the Mining Forum Europe in Zurich. For a long time, it was an insider-only event mainly attended by mining companies, but with the recent surge in the gold price, there was much more room this time for a broader, macro-driven perspective.

“The total value of Dutch securities holdings reached nearly 3,500 billion euros in 2024.” It’s one of those headlines—this one from the Dutch Central Bank (DNB)—that most investors overlook, let alone actually read. But behind that enormous figure lies a world that once again shows how deeply entrenched the traditional investment industry remains in an outdated mantra.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of copper has risen by over 20 percent. So, Dr. Copper is telling us loud and clear that a recession isn’t coming. Right?