Jeroen Blokland

If you’re a regular on platforms like X or LinkedIn, you’ve likely encountered those attention-grabbing posts proclaiming, “If you’re not using AI, you’re left behind” or “My boss thinks I’m an AI genius, but it’s because of this…” followed by a link to some Substack or website. Such posts, often cheap advertising, may overstate the productivity boost from Artificial Intelligence (AI).

China faces a complex challenge as it aims to further stimulate its economy amidst a relentless property crisis while avoiding the repercussions of a devalued currency. It’s a delicate tightrope walk that could see the nation persistently offloading US bonds and equities.

The Chinese government is poised to inject an additional one trillion yuan into its faltering economy. The persistent property sector woes show no signs of abating and are now seeping into banking, construction, and retail.

Interest rates are shooting up and in some cases have reached the highest levels in decades. The share prices of US regional banks are collapsing again. And yet reports of new collapsing banks remain absent. Why?

Deposits!

The chart below provides the answer to that question. Despite continued competition with money market funds, deposits of smaller US banks are steadily increasing. Compared to a year ago, there has been a modest growth of 2 per cent.

As Italy’s 10-year interest rate hovers around 5 percent, flashbacks to late 2012 become inescapable. A time not far off when Italy’s place in the Eurozone was in question. Could we be on the brink of another debt crisis?

Many in the investment world have a myopic view, focusing intently on ‘the spread’, especially with nations deep in debt. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy currently boasts a rather ‘admirable’ debt-to-GDP ratio of 144 percent - and this pertains only to public debt.

The chart making waves on social media isn’t getting attention without reason. It suggests that the real turmoil in the US labour market kicks in only after the yield curve has been inverted for over a year. Investors might be celebrating a soft landing prematurely.

Thursday’s ADP employment growth figure modestly stood out with a meagre addition of 89,000, but the real stunner last week was the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index. Contrary to expectations and amidst surging energy prices, it plummeted last month to a level of 43.8, nearly five points lower than the previous month.

A recent chart from UBS has caught my attention. It indicates a surprising reluctance among Americans to spend during the upcoming holiday season, especially when compared to their willingness in July.

I am intrigued and—admittedly—surprised by the robustness of American consumer spending. I understand that wage growth has been substantial, but inflation has risen even more. While nearly everyone in the U.S. has a job (or two or three), it hardly offsets the increased financial burdens.

Long-term inflation expectations have risen this year.

At the time of writing, markets are still pricing in just under a 60 per cent chance that the ECB will raise interest rates one more time sometime in the coming months. And although Lagarde has only recently turned to wage growth as an argument for further tightening, there are plenty of reasons to at least pause.