Jeroen Blokland

Interest rates are shooting up and in some cases have reached the highest levels in decades. The share prices of US regional banks are collapsing again. And yet reports of new collapsing banks remain absent. Why?

Deposits!

The chart below provides the answer to that question. Despite continued competition with money market funds, deposits of smaller US banks are steadily increasing. Compared to a year ago, there has been a modest growth of 2 per cent.

As Italy’s 10-year interest rate hovers around 5 percent, flashbacks to late 2012 become inescapable. A time not far off when Italy’s place in the Eurozone was in question. Could we be on the brink of another debt crisis?

Many in the investment world have a myopic view, focusing intently on ‘the spread’, especially with nations deep in debt. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy currently boasts a rather ‘admirable’ debt-to-GDP ratio of 144 percent - and this pertains only to public debt.

The chart making waves on social media isn’t getting attention without reason. It suggests that the real turmoil in the US labour market kicks in only after the yield curve has been inverted for over a year. Investors might be celebrating a soft landing prematurely.

Thursday’s ADP employment growth figure modestly stood out with a meagre addition of 89,000, but the real stunner last week was the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index. Contrary to expectations and amidst surging energy prices, it plummeted last month to a level of 43.8, nearly five points lower than the previous month.

A recent chart from UBS has caught my attention. It indicates a surprising reluctance among Americans to spend during the upcoming holiday season, especially when compared to their willingness in July.

I am intrigued and—admittedly—surprised by the robustness of American consumer spending. I understand that wage growth has been substantial, but inflation has risen even more. While nearly everyone in the U.S. has a job (or two or three), it hardly offsets the increased financial burdens.

Long-term inflation expectations have risen this year.

At the time of writing, markets are still pricing in just under a 60 per cent chance that the ECB will raise interest rates one more time sometime in the coming months. And although Lagarde has only recently turned to wage growth as an argument for further tightening, there are plenty of reasons to at least pause.

The ‘intra-day’ turn of the S&P 500 Index following the release of US inflation data is the first evidence that Powell has deprived markets of ‘Fed hopium’.

US headline inflation rose to 3.2 per cent in July from 3.0 per cent. While that was lower than expected, it was nevertheless the first increase in the inflation level since June 2022, which (social) media used to fill headlines. 

I had to double-check my Bloomberg screen. But it was there indeed, Dutch central bank chief Knot indicated in a recent Bloomberg interview that further monetary tightening after the ECB meeting in July is anything but guaranteed. And that, coming from the most hawkish member of the ECB’s Governing Council.