monetary policy

If Donald Trump is re-elected as President, he plans to have more control over U.S. monetary policy, not just relying on Federal Reserve officials who follow his direction. This idea has raised concerns among experts, including Sylvester Eijffinger, a former advisor to the Fed, who calls it “a disastrous plan.”

Central bank analysis rarely goes beyond predicting the timing of the next interest rate step and the total number of interest rate steps that will be implemented over a given period, writes Jeroen Blokland.

The ECB decision to cut interest rates in June was not only perplexing but also premature, writes ECB-watcher Edin Mujagic.

Forget about all those bars of gold that are heavily guarded because they are incredibly valuable. Credibility is the most valuable asset for a central bank. It is the monetary version of what goodwill is to a company. In this respect, the ECB could learn a lot from the Fed. An analysis.

The more credible a central bank is, the more effective its policy is. With high credibility, a central bank needs to do less actual work to achieve the desired result: bludgeoning inflation. More words, and less action, so to say.

Uncertainty regarding monetary policy, inflation, and the pace at which the climate crisis is worsening are known factors that will determine the shape of investment charts in 2023. On top of that, the risk exists that an unexpected event will leave its mark. Investment Officer’s experts and columnists are clear in their expectations for this year. “The list of tough questions for 2023 is long.”

The European Central Bank as expected announced a 75-basis-point interest rate hike on Thursday. It is the third consecutive increase this year. The move came as no surprise to markets.

The central bank updated its wording of the forward guidance, indicating that further tightening is to be expected, but will be done on a meeting-by-meeting basis. At the press conference, following the board meeting, President Lagarde elaborated on the time lag between monetary policy decisions and the subsequent effects on economic data. 

The era of negative interest rates on government bonds is over, but the moment when government bonds will again generate both portfolio protection and returns is still far away. Especially in Europe, the situation is tough. The ECB has its hands tied. The need to save Italy means Eurozone interest rates can only rise so much. “Make no mistake about it: the next six months won’t be pretty.”

The European Central Bank needs to review its special programmes that make available cheap money to banks in Europe in order to become more effective in fighting inflation, Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau told central bankers at their meeting in Jackson Hole.

The US equity market has rebounded some 15 percent from its low in June, helped by hopes of a Fed turnaround, better-than-expected corporate results and investors who were gloomy but invested.

The June low remarkably coincided with the peak in earnings expectations for 2022 and 2023. This means the entire price recovery can be attributed to higher valuations, made possible by lower interest rates. The fact that corporate earnings were better than expected, however, says more about expectations than about the underlying earnings trend.

Time and again I look for it. And every time I do not find it. What is it about? I look for the word “money growth” in interviews and speeches by board members of the European Central Bank. That is strange and revealing at the same time.