inflation

The effects of the inflation wave crashing over the Eurozone and especially in the US are not temporary. As high energy prices persist and second-round effects  still have to find their way into the economy, analysts question the ECB’s reluctance to act and raise eurozone interest rates. “Can the ECB claim that all is well and good and stick to its latest statements and position? The markets do not seem to believe that.”

2022 will be another exciting year for financial markets. Investors operate in an environment of persistent inflation, foggy central bank policy and uncertainty about the Omicron variant. It is a search for yield and protection in the portfolio. But how?

In the medium term, the green transition may further fuel inflationary risks, according to ECB board member Isabel Schnabel in an interview with the Financial Times last weekend. Rising energy prices, she said, may require the ECB to do more to hold back increases. She urged portfolios to increase their investments into real assets. 

“Inflation is currently above 10 per cent,” said Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management. The billionaire investor fears that if inflation remains at this level, “there will be major consequences for most of us.”

With non-financial media writing about the increasing devaluation of money, inflation awareness is starting to permeate all parts of society. But according to Bill Ackman, the reality is much grimmer than it seems.

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin wants to vote against President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better programme. Since the Democrats only have a narrow majority in the Senate, a majority that they are going to lose at the end of this year, the generosity of the American government will be over.

According to the Republican senators and Manchin, it is no longer about saving the economy, but about fighting rising inflation.

In its outlook for 2022, JP Morgan Asset Management makes no bones about the fact that equities remain attractive, even if inflation sticks around a bit longer than expected. In times of inflation and negative real interest rates, equities have almost never given a negative return in the past, according to JP Morgan’s outlook with chief strategist Vincent Juvyns (photo).

The business outlook for next year is characterised by concerns about inflation. Is it a temporary phenomenon linked to problems in the supply chain as consumer demand has picked up again this year? Or is it permanent? Central bankers are considering their usual anti-inflation tool, interest rate hikes and the removal of public measures to stimulate the economy. According to US economist Robert Reich, the real problem is more a matter of regulatory failure in the area of competition law.

It takes a lot of guts to come up with the proposition that this is the moment to shift the emphasis from growth to value stocks. But John Bailer, US equity income manager at Newton Investment Management, is certain. The reason: structural changes in the macroeconomy. Soaring inflation, for example, is giving rise to a veritable “value renaissance”.

Real assets like stocks and real estate are expensive but remain a way to maintain purchasing power. And inflation will remain high. This is BNP Paribas’ outlook as explained by Philippe Gijsels, chief strategist, and Koen De Leus, chief economist.

Saxo’s traditional “Outrageous predictions” for 2021 were right on target, suggesting an extreme rise in inflation in 2021. For next year, the bank is betting on a 15 per cent inflation rate in the US through wage-price spirals. What other self-styled outrageous, striking, bizarre predictions does Saxo have in store for next year?