inflation

Saxo’s traditional “Outrageous predictions” for 2021 were right on target, suggesting an extreme rise in inflation in 2021. For next year, the bank is betting on a 15 per cent inflation rate in the US through wage-price spirals. What other self-styled outrageous, striking, bizarre predictions does Saxo have in store for next year? 

“The world needs to be prepared for a debt crisis in emerging markets. Rising interest rates will draw capital away from vulnerable countries”, warned Kristalina Georgieva, director of the IMF. For the time being, not everyone feels moved by this warning, “emerging market debt is a paradise for active investors”, according to Wouter van Overfelt, senior portfolio manager EM debt at Vontobel, in an interview with Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s Dutch sister publication.

While the price of gas shot through the roof last week, it seems that a real energy crisis can be avoided in the short term now that Vladimir Putin is going to supply extra gas. Nevertheless, the unexpected turbulence in the energy market is reason for ING to reassess its investment strategies. It is a perfect storm.

The question is whether the illiquidity of private markets is still an issue if the market becomes more volatile again. Especially when you realise that liquid markets can also become illiquid.

To a large extent, the current inflation level is a consequence of the coronavirus crisis. That is the main argument for labelling it temporary. However, the risk of this temporarily higher inflation is that it becomes lodged between the ears.

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB have all started to tighten. The Fed thinks that by the middle of next year it will have ended its 120 billion a month buying programme. At this rate, tapering will be faster than last time. To avoid discussions on tapering, Lagarde prefers to talk about recalibrating instead of tapering, but it is the same thing.

Guy Wagner of Banque de Luxembourg Investments believes that Western economies will emerge weakened by the health crisis, with higher inflation and huge private debt. His fund is defensively positioned, despite an equity exposure close to 70% of assets under management.

Every day, Natixis IM’s head of multi asset James Beaumont and his team wonder how much higher the equity markets can go. Yet, according to him, the issue that is keeping multi asset investors awake at the moment is something else. What should they do with government bonds? 

The IPCC report is widely seen as disturbing and alarming. The urgency is clear. The most important consequence for investors is that it will lead to more inflation. After all, the report’s obvious aim is that more must be done to combat global warming.

A monetary policy mistake is now a very big risk about which markets are not taking sufficient account. Tightening at the wrong time could trigger a recession. The first half of the year was very positive, but you also have to dare to take profits. Inflation will be more persistent than generally assumed. Caution is therefore advised.