Jeroen Blokland

I am a fan of the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. Not only because this survey covers many important investment themes or because the respondents are exclusively investors, as opposed to “connoisseurs” who give their opinions from the sidelines. The survey also regularly exposes the inconsistent behaviour of investors.

The difference between US 10-year and 2-year yields has fallen to around 45 basis points. That is a flattening of the US yield curve of almost a full percentage point in the last four months. It raises the question of whether a new recession is imminent.

US 10-year yields rose above 2.0 percent last week. The last time 10-year yields were above 2.0 percent was in July 2019. With skyrocketing inflation and the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes in mind, that probably does not sound so crazy. Yet our model estimate for US 10-year yields points in the opposite direction.

We estimate US 10-year yields using the following factors:

- US unemployment rate

After its famous ARK vs. Berkshire Hathaway chart, the Financial Times recently published another strong chart. It shows that the overnight return, the return between the closing and opening of the stock exchange, is many times higher than the return realised during regular stock exchange hours.

Contrary to what many central bankers and economists expect, “supply chain disruptions” are still ubiquitous. Indeed, a quick glance at delivery times, inventories and freight costs shows that supply chain disruptions are getting worse rather than less. That could put an end, at least temporarily, to the equity rally, has written Jeroen Blokland, multi-asset specialist and founder of the research platform True Insights, in his first weekly contribution to Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s sister publication. 

Fund managers consider it less and less likely that the economy will continue to grow in the coming period. Normally, this uncertainty about future growth is a reason for investors to reduce their equity exposure. 

“This can cause downward pressure on equity markets,” Jeroen Blokland, of independent investment research firm True Insight, concluded in his Daily Insight on Wednesday, based on the latest Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey.

‘It’s a good time to be a bit more bullish again,’ says Jeroen Blokland, head of Robeco’s multi-asset team. Especially for equities and commodities, the asset manager is counting on double-digit returns.