Fund managers consider it less and less likely that the economy will continue to grow in the coming period. Normally, this uncertainty about future growth is a reason for investors to reduce their equity exposure.
“This can cause downward pressure on equity markets,” Jeroen Blokland, of independent investment research firm True Insight, concluded in his Daily Insight on Wednesday, based on the latest Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey.
Fund managers have revised their expectations of the economy sharply downwards, the chart published by the bank shows. In the past, such a drop - or rise - was a harbinger for an adjustment in equity exposure, the same chart shows.
Blokland (ex-Robeco): “If this relationship holds, equity considerations will probably be reduced or eliminated.”
Falling stock markets
US stock markets fell two days in a row this week after retail sales there fell more than expected. Growing concerns over Covid-19 and images from Afghanistan also dampened global risk appetite, according to Swissquote’s senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
Nevertheless, the analyst believes it is too early to speak of a sustained market correction. “US equities doubled in value after the March 2020 plunge; some profit-taking and a small correction are only natural at this point,” Ozkardeskaya said in a market view on Wednesday. According to her, at least two to three days of losses are needed to ring alarm bells.
Deteriorated risk-return dynamics
Blokland agrees that shares are still moving close to their all-time highs. “Yet shares often struggle when the peak of economic activity is reached. Moreover, the risk-return dynamic for equities has deteriorated, now that some monetary tightening is imminent.”
Swissquote’s Ozkardeskaya calls cheap Fed money one of the main bullish drivers at the moment. Any hint of QE tapering could therefore have a significant impact on market sentiment, she says. “Since we are talking about a change in one of the main pillars of the US equity rally, not to say the main pillar. Of course, the removal of support by the Fed will feel like pulling the rug out from under the market’s feet. But, no stress.”
The analyst expects that where markets reacted badly to the announcement of tapering in 2013, this time it will be different. “This is because the market has weathered tapering well and because Fed officials have already prepared investors for a reduction in bond purchases.”
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And yet, Ozkardeskaya also sees the first precautions in the market, referring to software company Palantir, which has bought more than $50 million worth of physical gold as protection. “Buying gold as a ‘bad-day hedge’ is good, but costly in a market where equities are posting abnormally high returns and banks are clamouring for further profits,” Ozkardeskaya stated. Then he mused: “Maybe it is just time to position against the mass market, because when everyone is calling for more profits, that is usually when a downward correction takes place.“
According to Blokland, a neutral stance on equities is currently justified. Earlier, Optimix opened the door to the exit by stating that a sharp decline in the equity markets could be imminent.