Commentary: new oil crisis imminent
Ultimately, the price of oil is determined by supply and demand. What is special about the oil price is that, in theory, there are several equilibrium prices. This is because a large part of the supply is linked to a state budget. Where normally the supply goes down when the oil price goes down, there are countries that in the past pumped more oil to realise the same yield.
Knowing that the final price is determined by the marginal buyer and the marginal seller, identifying these two parties is essential for predicting the oil price.