stagflation

Europe’s energy supply is under severe pressure, and the 8.9% inflation rate in the eurozone seems to be cushioned only by sharp increases in interest rates, which could push the European economy into recession. Is Europe still the continent you want to be in as an investor?

Although the European economy had a relatively good second quarter, with economic volumes up 0.7% on the first, concerns for the second half of the year remain high.

Gold is playing its traditional role in the flight to safety and rose above 2000 dollars per troy ounce this week. There was disappointment last year when the gold price reacted poorly to sharply rising inflation, but Ukraine has pushed up the price. Gold thrives best at times of  chaos, but it is not a good hedge against inflation.

Russia’s invasion makes it more difficult for central banks to keep inflationary pressures at bay. Rising commodity prices weigh on the cost of living in the US and Europe. Restrictive effects of the Ukraine war on economic recovery are also increasing, but a full-fledged stagflation scenario so far appears premature, one investment strategist told InvestmentOfficer.

Global financial markets were in turmoil on Thursday in a clear sign that investors had not expected Russian President Vladimir Putin to make an aggressive move into Ukraine by launching a full-scale invasion.

“Even just yesterday people were dismissing this as unlikely,” well-known economist and Fed watcher Mohamed El-Erian, advisor at the Allianz & Gramercy said. “This is way beyond anything. This is a very unsatisfactory situation.” 

It is too early to talk about stagflation, but inflation risks are rising and therefore central banks need to be very vigilant about tightening monetary policy early if prices rise and global growth slows.