Split on rate path, US firms agree on how to position in Treasuries
US asset managers are finding common ground on one point: the short end of the U.S. Treasury curve is where investors should be. The reasoning behind that stance, however, differs sharply.
On the way to a new recession?
The difference between US 10-year and 2-year yields has fallen to around 45 basis points. That is a flattening of the US yield curve of almost a full percentage point in the last four months. It raises the question of whether a new recession is imminent.
Is a recession on the way?
The yield curves on the global bond markets flattened dramatically during the second half of October. When flattening is followed by inversion of the yield curves, a recession is inevitable. This ominous development is causing concern in the market, but are the concerns justified?