chart of the week

Many investors mistakenly conclude that China and the United States are completely different due to their distinct financial (and societal) systems. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Both nations’ faltering economic engines are kept running by the same remedy: debt.

The Federal Reserve still raised interest rates by 25 basis points despite the banking woes. But not because it has high confidence that all will be well. Moreover, by not pausing once, it has again misled the market.

Little is more volatile than financial markets. One minute equity markets are stumbling over yet another mountain of additional interest rate hikes by central banks, the next we are waiting to see if those same central banks need to act to prevent another banking crisis.

Powell opens the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike, interest rates shoot up and equities crash. And yet, at the time of writing, the VIX index is below 20, raising the question of whether equities are not a bit complacent.

You can probably already hear a little from my tone what my answer is going to be. Still, there is a good reason why implied volatility looks relatively low.

My column last week, titled ‘Cash is king,’ showed that both cash and bonds are again competing with equities. After years of being saddled with TINA - There Is No Alternative - there again is something for investors to choose from.

There you are with all those fancy indicators like yield curves, ISM Manufacturing, and housing markets. They all point in the same direction, down! But the incoming US macro numbers are in no way pointing to a recession, nor to a soft landing. Spend it!

Corporate profits will not fall even if economic growth declines, because of inflation. That is the thinking many investors have when it comes to expected earnings growth for the next 12 months, which is still positive. But I think we are now past the stage where profits are still driven by inflation.

UK financial markets are in “turmoil”. This somewhat CNBC-esque opening, however, covers it well. And it has resulted in a chart that usually belongs to an emerging economy on the verge of collapse. The British pound is falling despite rapidly rising interest rates.

After consistently recording fat pluses over the past decade, the euro area’s trade balance has sunk deep into the red. For years, international trade contributed substantially to economic growth in the euro area. But: “Das war einmal”.

A historic surge in expensive energy imports now that gas supplies from Russia have been completely cut off results in a heavily negative trade balance. As a result, trade is now dragging down growth and pushing up the already sky-high risk of recession further.

Activity in the US housing market is rapidly declining. New home sales fell more than 12 per cent in July, the biggest drop since February last year. It was also the sixth decline in seven months. Compared to the peak, 51 per cent fewer new homes were sold.