The pitfall of inflation forecasting
Three things come into play when forecasting future inflation. First of all, the difference between supply and demand. At macro-economic level, an estimate is often made of the output gap, or the tightness of the labour market. In addition, the current inflation level also plays a role. Inflation is reasonably inert, well-anchored and responds slowly to changes. It takes time for a different inflation level to sink in with consumers and producers.