Investment Officer Luxembourg

The returns generated by private credit funds seem to primarily benefit fund managers, not investors. According to a recent study published by three economists from the American National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) there is no extra return left for investors after accounting for costs and risks.

The study “Risk-Adjusting The Returns To Private Debt Funds” analyzes cash flow data from 532 private credit funds established between 1992 and 2015. The researchers compared incoming capital to distributions to investors.

Fund sponsors increasingly explore ways to facilitate access by retail investors to private assets. Part II UCIs have been instrumental in this development. This contribution discusses the increased success of the Part II UCI fund regime with private markets firms accessing the private wealth market.

As home to investors and companies that prefer the allure of American markets over their domestic counterparts, the European Union has arrived at a crossroads. A window of opportunity has arrived for creating a new framework that supports efficient capital markets, creating growth and jobs and enabling retail investors and pension savers meet their long-term financial needs.

In the financial markets, geopolitical risks often exhibit a binary nature: for a long time, they pose no issue until suddenly, they do. Consequently, the relationship between geopolitical risks and the financial markets’ response is not straightforward. This complexity partly arises because these risks usually stem from singular events, which markets are adept at overlooking. In this context, possession often marks the end of interest.

This week, the following chart from the Financial Times caught my attention. It shows the net issuance of shares worldwide since 1999. Although the year is still relatively young, 2024 so far shows the largest negative issuance over this period.

As the chart also indicates, in recent years, it has become more common for more shares to “disappear” (often bought back in buyback programs) than are issued. To be precise, in four of the last nine years.

While it must frequently adjust its predictions, the market yet anticipates two reductions in the Federal Reserve’s rates within the year. Should these occur, the implications for the S&P 500 are a matter of considerable speculation.

“At some point a kind of repetition creeps in, fatigue too, like over that eternal ECB watch, whether a comma has shifted somewhere. Take US interest rates. Do you remember whether or not it was raised in March 2018?”

Emerging markets continued last year’s trend in Q1 2024. And that is not good news for emerging market investors, as it meant another significant underperformance versus developed countries. Although the return of the MSCI EM index was 4.71 per cent in euros, making it positive in absolute terms, it is a considerably worse result than the 11.37 per cent achieved by the MSCI World index.

Paris-based Oddo BHF Asset Management has announced the launch its first European Long-Term Investment Fund. The fund is called the Oddo BHF Commit for Tomorrow Eltif and will be domiciled in Luxembourg, targeting clients keen to commit to long-term financing companies that provide energy storage and water treatment solutions.