Guy Barnard, CFA, a seasoned investor with nearly two decades at Janus Henderson, co-leads a dedicated team of eight investment profcessionals managing approximately $3 billion in real estate investments across global and regional mandates. His investment strategy is built on fundamental analysis, with a focus on boots-on-the-ground analysis incorporating macroeconomic factors and regional market trends.
«Having navigated multiple market cycles, the team has developed an investment philosophy that prioritizes resilience, adaptability, and long-term value creation,» says Barnard.
A global approach to risk mitigation and opportunity
Real estate markets vary significantly by region, requiring a well-informed global perspective. Janus Henderson maintains dedicated teams across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific to leverage regional insights and optimize investment decisions.
«Diversification across geographies enables us to manage risk while capitalizing on structural growth trends. For instance, while office demand declines in the U.S., logistics assets in Asia are seeing heightened investor interest,» Barnard explains.
The advantages of listed real estate for institutional investors
For institutional investors, listed real estate provides significant advantages over direct property ownership, including liquidity, diversification, and transparency. REIT cash flows are also less volatile than broader equities, as per the chart below.
Source: FactSet, Raymond James Research as at 31 December 2024. *Forecasted data for 2025 and 2026. There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, nor forecasts will be realised.
«A €10 million allocation in listed real estate can provide exposure to assets across 20 countries, encompassing thousands of properties—an unparalleled level of diversification compared to private markets,» notes Barnard.
Regulatory reporting and market visibility further enhance the appeal of listed real estate, allowing investors to assess performance with greater clarity and adjust positions swiftly when needed.
Portfolio Day 2025
Guy Barnard will speak at Portfolio Day about “Real Estate, here’s why the fundamentals remain sound…” Come to Portfolio Day 2025 on Wednesday, June 11 and be inspired. The event is Dutch and English speaking.
The impact of rising interest rates on listed real estate markets
Macroeconomic shifts, particularly rising interest rates, have reshaped real estate valuations on the downside. Since early 2022, listed real estate valuations in Europe have dropped by approximately 40% within nine months, reflecting the end of a prolonged low-rate environment which started in the early eighties.
«Private market valuations initially remained steady, but the reality of higher borrowing costs has since led to price corrections of 15–20% in some segments, such as secondary office spaces. The investment landscape is adjusting, and while financing costs remain elevated, attractive opportunities persist,» Barnard explains.
Identifying the most promising investment opportunities
Barnard highlights several real estate sub-sectors that continue to offer strong growth potential:
- Data centres: The surge in cloud computing, AI, and digital transformation is making data centres a critical infrastructure asset, offering strong, long-term cash flows.
- Premium office spaces: While demand for traditional office space has shifted, highly efficient and well-located properties in global financial hubs such as New York, London, and Paris remain in high demand.
- Nursing homes and student housing: Demographic trends are fuelling growth in these sectors. Companies like Welltower, benefiting from aging populations, have seen significant stock appreciation since 2023. In Belgium, Xior offering prime student housing and Aedifica developing nursing homes also profit from this trend. They continue to exhibit strong pricing power.
- Industrial and logistics properties: The acceleration of e-commerce continues to drive demand for logistics hubs, positioning this sector for long-term expansion.
Janus Henderson’s differentiated approach to real estate investment
Janus Henderson stands out through its active management approach, emphasizing high-conviction investments over passive investment. The firm identifies market inefficiencies and capitalizes on emerging trends ahead of broader market movements.
«Our global team enables us to identify dislocations and emerging opportunities in real time. This localized intelligence is a key advantage in making strategic investment decisions. You might say the recent volatility is more of a friend than a foe,» says Barnard.
Another distinguishing factor is Janus Henderson’s commitment to ESG-driven investment strategies, integrating environmental, social, and governance considerations into the decision-making process.
«As sustainability regulations evolve and investor priorities shift, ESG-focused real estate investments are increasingly critical for long-term value creation,» he adds.
The increasing role of technology in real estate
As the industry embraces digital transformation, technology is becoming an essential driver of efficiency and sustainable value creation.
AI-driven property management, smart buildings, and data analytics are reshaping how real estate assets are managed and optimized. Investors who integrate these innovations into their strategies will gain a decisive advantage, Barnard predicts.
Looking ahead: the future of real estate investment
Despite ongoing interest rate fluctuations and bouts of market volatility, Barnard remains optimistic about the sector’s ability to generate stable returns.
«Over the past 25 years, global REITs have delivered returns of c.8% p.a. (USD), with income the backbone of those returns. With a growing dividend yield of 4% today, and many high-quality REITs yielding even more, investors with a long-term outlook will find compelling opportunities amid current market dislocations,» he emphasizes. Indeed, the technical nature of the recent market correction presents opportunities to acquire high quality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) at discounted prices while adding defensive qualities to a balanced portfolio.
Finally, Barnard advises investors to take a disciplined, forward-thinking approach to real estate. Despite near-term volatility, structural demand trends continue to support attractive investment opportunities. Those who focus on quality assets and adapt to changing market conditions may position themselves for long-term success, he concludes.
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