BNP Paribas Asset Management

Our general economic outlook for the rest of 2018 is for continued global growth with low but rising inflation worldwide. In this scenario, we expect major developed market central banks will gradually reduce the extraordinary level of liquidity in financial markets. There are risks of a sudden and unexpected rise in inflation and of trade tensions worsening into a wider trade war.

At a time when many bond investors vacillate between concerns over rising interest rates and the belief that the multi-decade bull market in fixed income is not over yet, emerging market (EM) local currency debt deserves to be given more attention than it often gets these days.

As a key natural resource, water plays a major role in industries across the economy as well as being essential to support life. However, it is predicted that by 2050, 52% of the world’s population will live in water-stressed areas. Balancing demand between agriculture, fisheries, industrial activities and personal use can become more difficult in areas of rising population and/or climatic changes.

In March, Britain and the EU reached a milestone agreement in their Brexit negotiations, but the road to a sensible outcome remains complex and long, with ample opportunity for spats and setbacks along the way.

Last year, a combination of recovering but still below-potential growth and falling inflation allowed the central banks of many emerging markets (EM) to continue easing their monetary policy, even as developed market (DM) central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), were shifting into tightening mode.

Financial markets have experienced another bout of volatility, this time related to an escalation in protectionism involving the US and China.

World Water Day on 22 March 2018 provided yet another timely reminder that water is humanity’s most precious resource – and that we must strive ceaselessly to ensure access to it for as many people as possible.

The first few months of 2018 have brought confirmation of continued synchronised above-trend global economic growth, lifting the long shadow cast by the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/09, dissipating the deflationary risks that have weighed on developed economies in recent years and putting central banks on the path towards interest-rate normalisation.

Our outlook for US inflation and growth has brightened considerably since the start of 2018, so we have lifted our targets for both US Treasury yields and TIPS-based breakeven inflation rates. Here, we review the factors we see as contributing to the rise in US inflation and look at the potential monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

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