Jeroen Blokland

The earnings season has only just begun, but we are already seeing some examples of what will become a trend: fewer companies beating expectations.

Investors like to be positively surprised, so companies tend to be overly cautious in their expectations so as not to disappoint those same investors. But when the economy is heading for recession, expectations are met less often and this earnings season is probably the first indication of this.

Negative surprises put a cap on the upside potential, especially for equities. As a rule, investors react strongly to surprises, often shaped as economic data. After all, the consensus expectation should already be incorporated in the prices. 

It is therefore no coincidence that there are indices that mathematically determine the degree of surprises. A good example are the Citi Economic Surprise indices. 

The ISM Manufacturing Index, also known as the purchasing managers’ index, fell more than expected in June. The index dropped to 53 where a reading of 54.5 was expected. This was not really a surprise, as the regional sentiment indicators had already fallen significantly. 

In fact, they pointed to an ISM Manufacturing of only just above 50.

German consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level ever, it became clear last week. Never before have German consumers been so negative about the economy and their financial prospects. And Germany is not alone.

Far from it. In the United States, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands too, consumer confidence recently reached an all-time low. The extremely negative sentiment among consumers is a global phenomenon caused by another global phenomenon: extremely high inflation.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast for the second quarter stands at exactly 0 percent. So no growth expected. Something economists certainly do not take into account.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a growth forecast based solely on published macro data during the quarter. This differs from the forecasts of most economists, who usually only give one number that may or may not be revised.

The global economy is cooling significantly and a large number of countries are at risk of recession. Equity valuations have fallen sharply in recent months, but do not yet reflect a drop in profits. And that is exactly what is in store.

Even before the European Central Bank has ended the current buying programme, ECB members are already working on a possible next programme. If you are still wondering whether the ECB’s policy might look different now that inflation is at record levels, you now have your answer.

When it comes to equity valuations, most investors are concerned with the price/earnings ratio. And while that P/E ratio has fallen to just below the average of the past decade, the picture painted by another valuation measure is much less attractive.

The decision is made. The ECB will also raise interest rates now that inflation is showing few signs of cooling. But this also increases the risk of a classic policy mistake.

Spreads on both corporate and high yield bonds have increased significantly in recent weeks. Nevertheless, especially the spreads on high yield bonds remain too low. Let’s get under the bonnet to explain why this is the case.

As the chart below indicates, corporate and high yield spreads are highly correlated. However, in recent weeks the spread combinations of both asset classes have been in the orange oval, indicating that high yield bonds are on the low side, compared to what you might expect based on history. The last data point is the pink square.